SOME interesting theoretical mathematics in The Times as their number-crunchers get in some early guesstimates of how much Premiership cash will be splashed in the summer sales - although if their assessment of Boro's spending parameters is anything to go by it needs taking with a pinch of salt so large the health fascists will be coming swinging through your windows on ropes SAS style throwing stun grenades and taking you into protective custody.
In short, the pin-stickers guide to market muscle and recruitment priorities scribbled out by the suck-it-and-see scribes suggests Boro will be the joint lowest spenders in the summer - alongside equally prudent Blackburn - with even Stoke and Hull ready and willing to throw their money around like a drunken sailor on shore leave as they finance a short-lived but wild Premiership party that is destined to end in tears and some barely credible tattoos that will take some explaining in decades to come.
The figures - as predictable as Eurovision voting patterns - put Boro and Blackburn bottom with a mooted expenditure of £10m plus anything raised in sales. Hull are estimated to be ready to spend £10-15m with Stoke and West Brom pencilled in for £15-20m. The bad news for the new boys is that even those bank-busting figures are woefully short of what is needed to compete.
Naturally at the other end of the financial foodchain are the Champions League finalists Chelsea and Manchester United whose squad strengthening is only limited by imagination and the determination of lesser clubs not to be robbed of their own few prize assets. Arsenal are reckoned to have £30m in the kitty with Liverpool believed to be reliant on sales - although Crouch and Alonso could raise £20m plus before the minor figures are thrown in.
In the vanguard of the more money than sense brigade come Sunderland, Portsmouth, Villa and Manchester City. The Mackems are widely reported as being ready to up the ante and after spending £40m in the summer to build a lower mid-table side they may spend more this time for the big push towards 11th while Pompey may indulge Harry to the tune of £35m to consolidate a top half place, Villa will gamble £30m plus to make the great leap forward to fifth and City are ready to let their new boss waste as much as Sven did again. The table:
Chelsea - James Bond supervillain global domination budget
Man Utd - bloated Stateside billionaire folly funding
Sunderland - £50m
Man City - £40m
Villa - £30-40m
Portsmouth - £35m
Liverpool - £30m
Arsenal - £30m
Everton - £25m
Spurs - £25m
Newcastle - £20m
Wigan -£20m
Bolton - £20m
Fulham -£20m
Stoke - £15-20m
West Brom -£15-20m
Hull - £10-15m
West Ham - £12m
Blackburn -10m
BORO - £10m
But wait a minute. How accurate are the estimates? Man City's funding could unravel if Thaksin's legal problems deepen in Thailand. Liverpool could be hamstrung if the boardroom squabbles lead to one faction vetoing the other's transfer targets. Newcastle's outlay may depend on the outcome of the political in-fighting that seems endemic at the club. Spurs owner Joe Lewis and his venture capital firm is believed to be one of the biggest losers in the current banking paralysis and may need to reign in spending. It is an uncertain world.
The figures don't factor in the unknown effects of either the vast increase in TV income that has now kicked in or the the global credit crunch and the willingness of banks to let clubs to spend well beyond their means to live the dream. Although there is more money than before in the top flight and the pressure to make hay while the sun shines and spend to survive is greater than ever, the external pressures to reduce exposure to creditors, rationalise the cost base and secure rather than speculate are also more compelling.
And even if Boro's net spend IS £10m that is broadly in keeping with other years and with what we can afford. Before people start screaming "where's the money gone?" and demanding the "full" £60m of new TV money is poured into agents' pockets consider this: even under the old stingy regime last year when Boro "only" got £30m from Sky they made a £17m loss. That follows recent other annual losses of £13m, £20, £15m... the deficit pretty correlates with the previous year's transfer spend.
When the wage bill is £30m and you factor in all the running costs - the academy, the scouting network, upkeep of the stadium, Hurworth, travel and accomodation for three teams, PR, legal and financial operations, matchday media scran - there is not a lot left out of that windfall to be squandering £8m on a benchwarmer as some teams will.
Plus, in the past Boro had the £8-10m income from season tickets to play with. In recent years that has shrunk as prices have been frozen and numbers fallen. This year that will shrink further still as a major demographic trend kicks in as number stay broadly the same around the 20-21,000 mark but there is a marked drift from from the full priced fat and forties to the pocket money price paying Under-16s. That will also eat into available funds.
And while some clubs will gamble and spend the windfall money on transfers and wages they can't sustain Boro shouldn't. They should resist the temptations to join the flurry of cash being thrown at average players while long term debt is loaded on the club. We don't know that the crazy circus will continue beyond the three years of the new TV deal so shouldbe wary of signing a clutch of new Mendietas, unsellable money drains in the reserves. We should press on with a sensible model of prudent housekeeping and relatively low cost base.
That said, the bluffer's guide to Boro's transfer intentions is broadly accurate. It says:
"Budget: At least £10 million on top of what comes into the coffers through sales. A decrease in the wage bill provides scope for free transfers."Areas of need: Midfield. Fabio Rochemback and Gaizka Mendieta have already left Teesside, Gary O’Neil is unsettled and George Boateng is not certain to fulfil the final year of his contract. The club have no plans to replace Mark Schwarzer, the goalkeeper, who has already defected to Fulham.
"Targets: Southgate is a confirmed admirer of Chelsea’s Steve Sidwell, while James Milner (pictured), of Newcastle United, will be a target if O’Neil moves south. As always during transfer windows, retaining the services of Stewart Downing, the England winger, is among the priorities.
"Surplus to requirements Middlesbrough have already been active in this regard, with Rochemback, Mendieta, Schwarzer and Dong Gook Lee all bidding their farewells. Few others will leave, but Southgate must decide whether loan periods will benefit his club’s good youngsters."
Listening to the buzz - the blog, the boards, the Legends, the bloke on the South Bank ominbus - most would disagree about the keeping situation and believe investment IS needed, while arguably proven cover is needed at both full-back positions: Taylor has failed to really push on this season (although to be fair he has been carrying a series of injuries) and Grounds remains at the potential stage on the left while McMahon has barely featured in two years and has an injury record to rival Mido and Huth so it would be a grave mistake to rely soley on him.
Midfield is clearly the most pressing area but Boro need three players - a defensive/holding player to replace Boateng (even if he stays he can not realistically be first choice), the creative player with pace that we have been lacking for years, and a right sided player that combines energy and solidity with a real cutting edge going forward. The bottom line here is that Boro are highly unlikely to get all three for £10m. Even if O'Neil is cashed in it will still be a close call - and there will be very little left for a keeper and two footed left-back.
And the notion that Boro are suddenly flush in the wages department because of the departures seems suspect too. Mendieta was on big money - it was widely reported on his arrival that he was earning in the region of £40k a week, although that may have been a figure at the top end of a sliding scale of variables like him playing, Boro being in Europe, in the top half of the table etc - and Mark Schwarzer was too. Let's take a guess and say generously £25k. But the other departees won't have been massive earners: I might be wrong on this but I'd have thought Rocky was around the £12k mark and Gook probably a very low basic - £5k or less - with a lot of productivity clauses built in. That only means freeing up just over £80k a week at the top end and maybe a lot less, and while admittedly that remains stupid money to us in truth it will only pay for two or three players of the quality we need (and not even one of the kind of quality that some people are setting as an unrealistic target.)
The saving grace is that 'budget' is far from a concrete concept at the Riverside. No Boro manager has ever had a kitty to play with. It has always been a case that if a manager wants a particular player, if they are available and if they can make out a compelling case that recruitment is essential, then Steve Gibson makes the money available. In the January window we were repeatedly told there was no money available and we should prepare ourselves for Paul Dickov on loan but Gibbo bankrolled a club record bid for Afonso Alves, a significant investment whether or no you believe it was a factor in the exit of Jonathan Woodgate.
For me it is the suitability of the players coming in that is important, not their price-tag. Luke Young last summer was a bargain at £2.5m. Not by any means a bling buy, certainly not a "spectacular" but his solidity, energy and consistently excellent unflustered displays at the back and potent addition to Boro's options going forward made him the best and most effective of the new recruits last summer.
Likewise Jeremie Aliadiere, a relative snip but a useful addition that has given another dimension with his speed, control and movement. In contrast the £6m spent on Mido is yet to show any sign of a return and Gary O'Neil at £5m could yet turn out to be an expensive stop-gap in a position that James Morrison was filling perfectly well on the cheap.
It does not matter where Boro come in the spending table. We don't need trophy signings. It only matters that the available money - no matter how much - is spent wisely, that the team is appreciably strengthened and that the current imbalances are rectified.
****
TODDY is in town promoting his new autobiography. It is not a great book, not least because he is a genuinely nice bloke who expressly refuses to dish any real dirt, but he still has a revealing story to tell. After 40 years in the game, two title winning medals, a PFA Player of he Year gong and 37 England caps, not to mention a long dug-out career managing a string of middling provincial sides with various degrees of success he has seen plenty.
In Boro terms he deserves massive respect for being part of the legendary group who engineered a great escape from the brink of liquidation, a determined group who worked without wages to turn the spirit and passion for and within a club that would not die. Alongside Bruce Rioch he helped steer a team of local lads and a couple of bargain bucket Jocks to successive promotions back to the top flight and then later - after Brucie was axed - was in charge for the first ever visit to Wembley.
I had a long chat with him last week and the results was a long article in the Gazette today about his still quite vivid and warm memories of the turbulent few years. His understated assessment of 1986 and the aftermath adds a new perspective to a series of events that still resonate throughout the club and the fanbase today. There are some other bits to come over the next week or so keep an eye out.
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