GOING down? Far from certain. But vulnerable? Of that there can be no doubt. Gareth Southgate’s stuttering side have equalled Boro’s worst ever start to a Premiership campaign to prompt widespread relegation fears, mutterings about the manager and, right or wrong, even the first stirrings of audible protest against the main man.
There has been much talk of the "ten game test" on this blog and elsewhere. Well it is time to apply it - and the results are deeply worrying. Boro’s current tally of eight points after ten games equals the low water mark set by Steve McClaren back in 2003-04 as the worst opening in 13 Premiership seasons. Incredibly, even in the two relegation seasons Boro had more points in the bag at this stage.
The ten game mark is a watershed. By this stage of the campaign there is no refuge from the cold harsh facts. The league table doesn’t lie. It isn’t all still in flux. New players aren’t just bedding in, the team aren’t still settling into new shapes and the early surprise results, and the optimism of August, are long forgotten. After ten games the die is cast. It isn’t a blip. A quarter of the season has gone and barring statistical quirks, radical surgery in the January window or an unusually potent galvanising effect of a new boss, the battle lines are drawn.
If you are in the top six now then you can realistically hope to be ‘there or thereabouts’ come May but if you are down in the bottom six then it is gonna be a long hard winter... bottom three and it is tin hats time and digging in for a dogfight.
The truth is that after ten games shot-shy Boro look fragile, one-dimensional, wafer-thin and vulnerable as they are suspended above the drop zone. They are not converting their chances and they are leaking too many goals, and especially the first goal - eight times so far this term Boro have leaked the opener and left themselves a mountain to climb and in the last four games that momentous goal has come in the first ten minutes. Even the optimists are left wondering where the next win is coming from.
That meagre return of just eight points falls far short of what all but the most ardent Slavenites would have budgeted for after what looked on paper a gentle start to the season. It was scripted as being a campaign that would feature an early charge into the top eight before the tough games kicked in. Naive maybe but most bought into that scenario.
Instead Boro have had a start that has enveloped Teesside in an air of apathy and resignation, gnawed away further at the crowd and given rise to dark fears that they were dancing on the trapdoor again. We stuttered unconvincingly through last season and weren’t mathematically safe until the penultimate game - but had 11 points on the board by now.
It has been a disappointing start. Boro have already played two of the promoted sides in Sunderland and Birmingham and four of last term’s fellow strugglers in Fulham, Wigan, West Ham and Manchester City - teams that Boro’s progress can fairly be measured against with alarming results.Those crucial season shaping games yielded just seven points, the other coming in the derby draw with Newcastle.
You don’t get points for attractive intentions or chances created but squandered. Boro have fallen between two stools with the widely demanded switch to attacking football yet to pay dividends but the change of shape also leaving them exposed to being hit on break. Boro are not landing their own punches but are being caught cold by the counter-attack.
So where are we after ten games? Boro’s eight points now is the joint worst tally in all the 13 season’s in the Premiership so far. An average of less than a point a game is relegation form no matter how you dress it up - although. to be fair, the only other time Boro had such a bad start they escaped the basement battle after a gritty upturn.
That was back in 2003-04 under Steve McClaren. That season started with a 3-2 defeat at Fulham then a 4-0 home hammering by Arsenal and a chaotic 3-2 Riverside reverse to Leeds either side of a goalless draw at Leicester. A 2-0 defeat away at Bolton left Boro joint bottom with Wolves before the team kicked into gear and won successive games 1-0 against Everton and Southampton then drew 0-0 with Spurs and stuttered their way up into mid-table.
Eight is a worryingly low tally at this stage. Even in Boro’s two relegation season’s they were better off. In Lennie Lawrence’s campaign in 1992-93 Boro had amassed 15 points and were looking comfortable in ninth. They were buzzing after thumping champions Leeds 4-1 and had also beaten Man City twice, Sheffield United, and Aston Villa plus drawn with Man United - the tenth game and one that marked Bernie Slaven’s last goal for Boro. It wasn’t until the post-Christmas slump and an injury crisis kicked in that the entire season began to unravel.
And in the “glorious” Samba powered Wembley double and relegation season Boro had already clocked up 12 points by now. There was a sizzling start at a sold out Riverside with a debut hat-trick for Fabrizio Ravanelli in a 3-3 draw with Liverpool then the ‘golden age’ myth of brilliant football was created in successive four goal wins over West Ham and Coventry. Boro won at Everton too and drew at Sunderland to edge up to eighth before the slow motion descent into chaos that to this day is lauded as a template for entertainment and excitement.
Boro’s best return on the first ten came in 1995-96 as Robbo’s promoted team proved hard to break down and with ‘the Midget Gems’ Nick Barmby and Craig Hignett as the cutting edge in a midfield five linking up with Jan Aage Fjortoft were hurting teams too. Boro opened with a 1-1 draw at Arsenal and lost only once, 1-0 at Newcastle, and leaked just four goals as they beat Chelsea, Coventry, Blackburn, Manchester City, Sheffield Wednesday and QPR. It may be heresy to mention it but that successful shape was changed to accommodate Juninho and that team never looked a coherent unit again although they finished a respectable 12th.
The next best start came in 2002-03 when Steve McClaren's team won five out of the first ten including a sparkling 3-0 win at Spurs that had pundits drooling over a Real Madrid style display of total football and a striking master class from new boy Massimo Maccarone.
Conclusions? That In terms of the table this is as bad as it has ever been in the Premiership - but last time we were here the team dug in and ground out some functional 1-0 wins to steady nerves and carve out breathing space so the situation while sticky is yet far from critical.
And, while the team has yet to be convincing it has also yet to be at full strength. The season started with a central defensive crisis and the main man pitched in without the benefit of a pre-season while injuries up front have left the team toothless for spells. We can only hope that if and when the gaffer can get his first choice XI out then the team can do what it said in the brochure and play some attacking football at pace that produces goals from all over the pitch. If not then we can only expect a long hard struggle for survival.
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