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What Price Viduka?

Posted by on May 14, 2007 10:55 PM | 

WHAT price Dimitar Berbatov? He's scored a few spectacular goals this season, including one against Boro, so he will be worth a few bob. What about the pricetag on Darren Bent? He is hot property after Charlton went through the trapdoor and will no doubt 'spark a summer scramble'. How about Dirk Kuyt? How much to buy him?

It bears thinking about because they all scored fewer Premiership goals than Mark Viduka this season. Check out the netbusting roll of honour.. And if you want to sign someone who scored more if will take the best part of next year's TV bonanza: Drogba, Ronaldo and Rooney will not come cheap - they will not come at all - while former target Benni McCarthy is unlikely to to rush to Boro: we were close to signing him once but his agent moved the goalposts late on in the talks so Gibbo chased him and McClaren signed Massimo Maccarone instead.

The key to the Mark Viduka dilemma for the Boro big wigs as they bite their nails in the tense contract brinkmanship is not how much it will cost to sign the Aussie hitman on a new deal but how much it will cost to replace him..

Clearly Viduka is worth his weight in gold. Currently the yellow stuff is trading at $670 an ounce and the heavyweight man weighs in at 14st 4lb which by my crude calculations is $2,401,280 or £1,213,588... I'd give him that as a signing on fee. In bullion if that's how he wanted it.

His statistics are incredible. Despite a seven week spell out injured he has scored 19 goals this term - a third against Fulham would have made him the first Boro striker since Ravanelli to break the 20 goal barrier to put that in perspective - and the number crunchers say his 14 Premiership goals came from 26 shots which represents a healthy ratio. His total tally for Boro is 42 goals in 101 starts and 21 appearances of the bench, which for a player so often derided as a 'fat lazy eyes-too-close-together Aussie get' is not a bad return.

But there are things that stats don't measure which make Viduka even more important to Boro than the naked numbers show. With his back to goal on the edge of the box he is the best player in the league. His strength, his knack of holding off even the strongest defenders, his close control and his ability to shift his weight and throw a deceptive body shape to send his marker the wrong way to create a yard of space is invaluable.

He wins free-kicks in dangerous areas not because he goes down with cardboard am-dram transparency around the box but because his shielding and control invites inevitable fouls from frustrated defenders who can't reach the ball.

And not only can he find room for himself but he can rip open holes for others to exploit and perhaps more importantly he scares the hell out of the opposition back line, holding the ball up with a combination of physical presence and guile and forcing them to double mark, drags defenders out of position and brings his team-mates into play in dangerous areas. He engineers opportunities for the team and you can't quantify that.

But somehow Steve Gibson, Keith Lamb and Gareth Southgate have to do just that. They must get out the calculators and come to a figure that Viduka is worth to the club. As a starting point it is probably fair to assume he is currently being paid in the region of £40,000 a week. Football wages are shrouded in mystery and guesswork but we know that from Leeds public financial exposure and Boro picked up his contract in all its complexity.

That equates to £2m a season without a pay rise so you can see why Boro may be keen to argue the toss between two years and four years. Let's say three years as a compromise and a £10,000 a week rise and you are talking about an investment of £7.5m in wages, a signing on fee (usually 10pc of any transfer fee but in this case say £500,000) plus bonuses, perks and parmo vouchers: at the top end of that range th clubs won't get much change from £9m.

But what do you get for £9m these days? Some people have suggested names like Ashton or Nugent but for all the hype they are unproven and would cost in the region of £8m - and then their wages, even if you could get them at the cheaper end of the scale would be maybe £1.5m for three years, plus a £800,000 signing on fee... so that's £13.3m over the course of the deal. There may well be a resale value but, as with Viduka, that doesn't carry a guarantee. Think about that logic in teh context of the investment in Maccarone for instance.

Boro have made what they insist is a generous offer but must obviously operate a prudent wage ceiling. They have insisted all along they wanted to keep him but were canny in January and did not makea formal offer for fear that his agent would use that as a benchmark in his approaches to other clubs. With safety assured the club have made a generous full and final offer and made it clear they wouldn't get into a bidding war, a high-risk but laudable strategy that proved successful in a similar situation with George Boateng last summer.

It is a mathematical formula and the club are operating in a range of figures this side of a point they think makes the move unviable. Their job is to persuade Viduka and his agent to accept a figure as low as possible between their limit and the notional figure that the Aussie camp will have set as the point that makes the hassle of uprooting his family and moving to another club the best option. Those two figures may not be that far apart but they may well be fixed so to find the balance between them will take patience and persistence.

Now Boro can only sit and wait. For Viduka's part it is his last big move and you can't blame him for weighing up all possibilities. He will no doubt receive other offers and with the more-money-than-sense ethic that prevails in football some of them will probably mean more dosh that Boro have offered so we must hope that other factors weigh heavier: Viduka seems happy at Boro and in Harrogate and crucially has been galvanised by the style of football Gareth Southgate's side is starting to play play and has pledged for the future while the fans have made it clear that he enjoys hero status at the Riverside.

We must hope that Viduka signs, and swiftly. If he doesn't Boro will have to dig deep and spend big if they are to have any hope of bringing in a striker that has enough in his armoury - abilities that benefit the whole of the team as well as goals - to be considered an adequate replacement.

Comments (24)

alf wrote...

what price yakuby who scored 1 more league goal than viduka? Or why not sign doyle or bent who also have scored more league goals than viduka? or why not sign zamora who has the same number of league goals as viduka? some of those players will by happy with a lot less wages than viduka and are still in their early 20's.

The problem with viduka is that he doesnt have time on his hand. Just look at jfh to see how quick a striker can go in decline. A club the size of middlesbrough cant afford to pay viduka a long lucrative contract when he is going to turn 32 at the begining of next season. the max we can offer him is 2 years which he will be nearly 34.

sadly at 31/32 or best years are behind you and you are only going to go in decline. Now if he was 24 we could be in a position to offer him more money for a longer contract as he has a sell on value.

if he leaves then so be it, we wil recover. manutd recovered from losing beckham,everton have recovered from losing rooney..etc

in the end the club cant be held to ransom by a player in his 30s and if the club have done their job properly they will have already prepared a list of possible replacements. Lets just hope they havent done a zenden and had no plan B lined up

Posted by: alf  | May 15, 2007 8:57 AM

alf wrote...

Sorry just realised that bbc website for top scorers hasnt been updated.

Its been a season of 2 halves for viduka. since january he has beenon fire. being cynical is that because he has put himelf in the shop window? How about boro just give him 80k a week for a 1 season rolling contract? that way he will put the effort in ans score goals to earn himself a new contract.

From boro's point of view he has on form in the last 5 months of his contract

AV writes: Viduka has scored 42 goals in 101 starts for Boro and 21 appearances from the bench. Yakubu has scored 35 in 101 plus 15. That gives the Aussie a slightly better scoring ratio so it can't just be the last few months he has been doing the business.

Posted by: alf  | May 15, 2007 9:09 AM

John Powls wrote...

Vic

I agree entirely and with golden knobs on but just 2 points.

The Boat isn't Vids - either in demand for his services or in his outlook/attitude.

It's more than the money - though that counts, as do all the factors that Vids himself has said about wanting to stay, his home etc.

But what he's also said is that he doesn't want to spend the rest of his career languishing in mid-table or escaping a nose dive out of the Prem just before we hit the deck and, I may add, on the back of his goals and precious little else.

I think that's the sort of ambition that the support wants too - but do Gate, Gibbo and Count DracuLamb share that? Or did their ambition die at Eindhoven?

I think he will want to see not just the fine words - though even that would be a start - but some other quality players signed and him made an offer that would tip the balance.

That doesn't mean 'sign him at any price' but just do the maths and weigh up the economics and the consequences both ways.

**AV writes: Viduka and Woodgate have both said several times that one of the factors that would influence them in staying was bringing in quality players. "You've got to buy good players to keep good players" was a phrase used by both. Let's hope Woody joining and some positive early noises in the market will help swing Viduka too.

Posted by: John Powls  | May 15, 2007 9:17 AM

Shaun wrote...

100 per cent right AV.

If he was still within his contract and clubs were approaching, I think we'd be looking at a price tag in the region of 12, maybe 13m?

He offers so much to the team. For a goalkeeper and defenders under a bit of pressure, he is the perfect target man. For forward-running midfielders, he can hold the ball up and play them in and for a strike partner, his awareness of where is is and where his partner is on the pitch is second to none.

As you say AV, he is a defenders nightmare. I'd rather play against a pacey striker who doesn't stop running then play against a brickwall who I can't get the ball off.

He must be so frustrating to play against and we've all seen defenders lose their rag after 60 minutes of playing against him.

For me, the success of next season hinges on Vids' signing, or non-signing as the case may be. I can't see us breaking the bank for a striker during the summer, not with gaps to be filled in other areas. It has already been said that the Woody signing has taken up a chunk of GS's transfer kitty so I guess it's twitchy bum time for the club and for the fans.

We can only live in hope that the offer on the table is a good enough one to keep Viduka at the club. I have faith in the club that it will be a good offer and I think Viduka will sign.

Posted by: Shaun  | May 15, 2007 10:37 AM

Colin Armstrong wrote...

Call me a cynic if you will, but it sadly comes as no surprise that MV is on fire as his contract runs out and he eyes up his "last big move".

He has always had the attributes to be one of the very best in world football; you won't find many forwards of the last decade who can match him for strength AND touch/technique.

But a good run of form for a couple of months every couple of years is no sort of return. A gifted player but a frustrating one, and sometimes difficult to admire. I would be tempted to say thank you and good luck.

**AV writes: Again, I would point out that in 101 starts (and 21 subs) he has scored 42 goals. That is not just playing for a few months when he is in talks or when Australia have a World Cup looming. It is a strike rate over four years that compares with all but the very best.

Posted by: Colin Armstrong  | May 15, 2007 11:09 AM

alf wrote...

"Viduka and Woodgate have both said several times that one of the factors that would influence them in staying was bringing in quality players. "

you have to take those comments with a pinch of salt. If they were true then viduka and woodgate would not sign until closer to the new season.

At the moment there is no guarantee that boro can promise any top class signings to them. Speculation that a chunk of boro's transfer fund is going on woodgate and signing someone from hibs is not the world class players they mean..he is unproven at the top level. I believe viduka will decide within 2 weeks, so i doubt we will have gone out and made any top draw signings to please viduka.

we just have to sit and wait to see if his agent has rang round and drummed up better offers. I hear man city will be bought out soon, so that could be another club interested will money to spend.

Viduka knows that even if he turns down boro in 2 weeks. He can still change his mind in 2 months time and the club will have him back.

whats his goals ratio prior to xmas this season?

Give him 2 years max or 1 year deal of 60k a week. if he isnt motivated by money then he will take it.

club has to look beyond next season and the wage structure to look after. if we give viduka 60k a week then that means woodgate, downing, arca, rochembach, yakubu..etc want the same

Posted by: alf  | May 15, 2007 11:43 AM

Neil (Baku) wrote...

But having said all that Vic, he is the wrong side of 30, and his performances will drop off, and if it is a 3 or 4 year deal he is looking for then I'm afraid the economics just don't add up.

Alf's idea of a rolling yearly contract, similar to what Denis Bergkamp had at Arsenal, would be better, but there again Denis was absolutely committed to Arsenal, he was playing with quality players and they were winning things.

We also need to consider just who might want him, and I think there will be a number of takers who will be willing to splash large amounts of cash for a short term return, something we would be unable and unwilling to do.

I'd obvioulsy like to see us spend big on a player who is younger and will guarantee the goals we need, but who of the quality we would be looking for, would want to come to us anyway.

I don't envy Southgate, Gibson or indeed Viduka himself, this is a tough call, and for me I believe we will see him leave to join a club he believes can further his ambitions in the twilight of his career i.e. winning something.

Sadly I don't think we will be able to offer anything like what he will be looking for either on the money side or in terms of witnessing "quality" players coming in, regardless of Gibson's meaningless "Gettysburg Address" last week.

It's a cut-throat business and many middling teams are going to find themselves in between a rock and a hard place over players contracts, and we will be no different.

I've just read a piece on another site that talks of Southgate on the look out for bargains in the summer, that will send all the messages Viduka needs.

And now we see rumours that Yak is not happy, and although he isn't my perfect striker, we are the only club outside of Man Utd who have two players in the top 12. Losing Viduka or Yak I will be hard enough to sustain, losing them both would be a disaster.

So are we looking to our usual crop of players we can afford (Euell) or have never heard of (Dong), or this youngster or that youngster coming through, only time will tell, but don't expect Mark Viduka to be around.

Posted by: Neil (Baku)  | May 15, 2007 11:54 AM

Colin Armstrong wrote...

AV, 42 in 101+21 looks hugely impressive on paper, but unfortunately it doesn't tell the whole story.

Too often until his recent brilliant spell he has flattered to deceive where it matters (i.e. the league) and filled his boots against, with respect, poor or moderate opposition - Dnipro, Xanthi, Bristol, Ostrava, Nuneaton, Palace, Hull, Basle...

His goalscoring record in the league was not a lot better than 1 in 4 up until the end of 2006. He has improved that considerably only in the last couple of months, as his contract neared its end. That's where the frustration comes in.

He will look back on his career and wonder if he could have done better. I believe he could. You say that Boro could not attract the likes of Drogba. Viduka SHOULD have been in that class.

Posted by: Colin Armstrong  | May 15, 2007 12:07 PM

tonyblack wrote...

What price indeed AV ?

My advice would be to make him an offer that he simply cannot refuse, obviously without breaking the bank in order to do so, and to also sort out whatever is wrong with Yakubu.

Viduka's loss would be huge to the club and so would that of Yakubu. Granted he hasn't sparkled of late but for me this is because there is something not quite right with him.

Both of these must represent one of the best strike force partnerships in the Premiership. Now that the Yak wants away I think if we lost them both during the summer it really would spell big, big trouble for GS next season.

No one is ever replaceable but as you quite rightly say who the hell else is there out there and at what price?

Signing Woody and paying him the big money he was after must have put a huge dent in the coffers and so in my opnion we just can't afford to have these big two players go.

A lot of players have already left and if we were to add these two to the list I think the job of getting all the new guys settled and playing as a unit would be a job too far for GS.

So let's just hope that they both stay so we can fully concentrate on the few areas that need to buy for as I really don't think that this team is in need of such a major overhall to be able to do quite well next season.

TB

Posted by: tonyblack  | May 15, 2007 12:23 PM

John Powls wrote...

Alf

How do we know that Woody's not already on such a figure? And what wage structure? And I can offer you a very cogent argument on why the others shouldn't be considered for a raise, if they asked.

Let's start with relative performance in the season just gone and then on their contracts as a whole.

On that basis Stewie's the only one due a productivity bonus - more crosses delivered than anyone else in the Prem last season, virtually our only source of supply to the strikers and regular in the full England squad

There's at least one on your list I'd be more keen to see the back of than to be upping his wages - maybe he can do better at Sporting Lisbon!

Who are we going to get (at the same wages plus a huge transfer and signing on fee) to give us the same value as Vids does and has?

Posted by: John Powls  | May 15, 2007 12:30 PM

Holgateoldskool wrote...

Vic, what you say largely mirrors what I have been saying on FMTTM. Frankly the guy is irreplacable as there isn't a striker around that offers the options he gives.

It would be crazy to see such a talent walk out of the door. Whilst he probably is asking too much it is my belief that our need to keep him is greater than his need to stay.

He appears to be holding the best cards.

Posted by: Holgateoldskool  | May 15, 2007 1:10 PM

alf wrote...

one thing to consider is that some players might have clauses in their contract stating that they can be the top earner. so for example woodgate might have an agreement that he will always be a top earner. if we offer viduka more than woodgate is on then woodgate gets more money. then downing wants more money cos he is an england international..then arca wants more money..and so on

Posted by: alf  | May 15, 2007 2:45 PM

Nigel wrote...

I think we need to read between the lines a bit here. Clearly Viduka and his agent are having talks with the Boro this week, he has said so.

GS has said he expects an answer within two weeks. Viduka is posturing a bit to get some leverage ahead of the final negotiations. He's after the best deal he can get, why not?

He'll stay, relax.............

Posted by: Nigel  | May 15, 2007 3:13 PM

Graeme Bandeira wrote...

He's holding the club to ransom, so we should just tell him to sling his hook.

This season apart he has looked largely disinterested when then things haven't been going well.

I think we should just let him go, and bring in someone like James Beattie, Marcus Bent or Dele Adebola to replace him.

**AV writes: Beattie? Adebola? Bandy, "give your head a shake" man.

Posted by: Graeme Bandeira  | May 15, 2007 3:16 PM

lee drury wrote...

On the sky sports website it says that Yakubu will be wanting to leave this summer, is there any truth in this AV?

Posted by: lee drury  | May 15, 2007 3:17 PM

Ian Gill wrote...

Verukas recent upturn in form is also linked to the way we have been trying to play.

The fact we are trying to be more progressive means that he is doing his work around their box. He is never going to do a Darren Bent and run 40 yards onto a through ball outpacing the centre backs. Let him play in the last third and his performances will reap dividends in terms of goals and assists.

As for the contract negotiations, as Alf says we will never know the intricate detail. More importantly we dont know what he is thinking nor do we know who is seriously interested as yet.

Posted by: Ian Gill  | May 15, 2007 5:00 PM

marc from fangfoss wrote...

alf, remember zenden, no he hasnt done it at liverpool but its horses for courses and our course suits viduka as it did zenden, oh and by the way,who replaced zenden? rochemback!! i rest my case

Posted by: marc from fangfoss  | May 15, 2007 9:30 PM

alf wrote...

and look at zenden playing in the champions league. Could that be viduka next season

Posted by: alf  | May 16, 2007 12:52 AM

Ian Gill wrote...

Zenden left to play champions league football with the champions of europe and try to get into the Dutch squad for the world cup.

nyone who blames him for that should promise never to take a pay rise, promotion or better themselves in any way. He took his chance and had a major injury and as Alf says he is playing in europe.

If a club playing in europe came in for Viduka and he didnt have to move that would be attractive. That would mean Everton Lpool and ManU.

Everton look likely to get Nugent which would suit their rough and tumble approach. At Lpool he would fit in and give them some guile around the box but would be subject to Benitses obbsession with rotation. At ManU he would fit in and suit their style of play but Smith, Saha, Solskjaer and Veruka look injury prone as a group - rotation wont be a problem as it will happen naturally!

Of the others who knows - I cant see him becoming best buddies with Big Sam or Keano. Spurs would mean upheaval and family does seem important though for a couple of years before ging back to Oz.

Posted by: Ian Gill  | May 16, 2007 9:45 AM

alf wrote...

Viduka has said he doent want to move but you never know if he would be tempted if it was a big european side in champions league.

I notice comments today from downing urging the club to pay what he wants and that viduka is happy with the lads, area, club,manager...and so on.

So if that is the case surely he can commit to boro and forget about the money side of things. Another £10,000 per week wont really dent his wealth if you are on £40,000 per week.

Posted by: alf  | May 16, 2007 10:38 AM

Nigel wrote...

Alf - I think you're right, Viduka clearly isn't going to be offered £100k/week by anyone , so if he does get a better offer than Boro's it may be an extra £5k-£10k a week, which is a lot to you and I but maybe not enough to justify a move to a man who is rich already.

I still believe he will stay.

Posted by: Nigel  | May 16, 2007 11:21 AM

r.j. bailey wrote...

We must keep Viduka, not only does he score goals but his whole act is pure class. His passing is second to none and his command in the box is superb.

The board would be mad to let him go,even if it meant adding another million or two to his contract.I dont know what it cost to keep George Boateng at the club but on both of their performances this season Viduka is worth at least double.

If Boateng had left i dont think he would be missed i think that goes for Yakubu too,wheras if Viduka goes, i think we will deeply regret it, especially if he went to Newcastle

Posted by: r.j. bailey  | May 16, 2007 2:08 PM

tom wrote...

letting scot brown slip to celtic could be a mistake in the up comming season

Posted by: tom  | May 17, 2007 1:16 PM

tim from sa wrote...

Have been reading the comments with intrest.

The reason Viduka is more effective now is because as a team we are playing further up the field.

Tactics have changed but the personnel have not which means we need a right sided attacking midfielder more than ever.

One other thing we must all remember we have secured Woody and if we manage to hold on to Vids that leaves us with same team as last year that narrowly avoided relegation food for thought.

Posted by: tim from sa  | May 17, 2007 1:22 PM

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