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Boro Stars on Maths of the Day

Posted by on May 21, 2007 2:59 PM | 

DOWNING baiters, listen up. The left footed line hugger is Boro’s most potent creative force - and that’s official!

According to the Premiership’s statistical service the livewire winger has put in more successful crosses than any other player in the Premiership and has been Boro’s best passer, dribbler and the team’s assist king to boot. And Alpine hardman and cult hero Emanuel Pogatetz is fast shaping up as one of the best defenders around too.

Stewart Downing has his critics, and some of them pretty vocal at that. A Big Time Charlie who has never reached his potential, they say. He never puts a foot in. He flatters to deceive. Get him sold to Spurs and get unproven Adam Johnson in they say, slipping into Chickenrun mode without really thinking it through.

But the number-crunchers’ end-of-term report gives a far more generous and objective assessment of a Pallister Park prodigy who is the most exciting left footed Teesside talent to emerge in decades.

The statistical snapshot shows that without doubt Downing is Boro’s most consistent attacking outlet. He has clocked up the most successful passes (440), most crosses (193), most dribbles (39) and most assists (seven) in a season which, mathematically at least, has been a personal success.

Those figures have made him the 13th highest ranked midfielder in the Premiership, no mean feat given the cash spent on world class stars by the league’s big boys.

His high point this term came as he engineered a sparkling 5-1 win against Bolton but it has been the week in, week out understated excellence that has rattled up the points on the official clapometer.

Actim Index, the Premiership’s official statistical service, like Sky’s Opta system, uses a mathematical matrix to map every minute of action in every top flight game.

Former pro’s follow each match from the press box noting in a metronomic style every single action: “Middlesbrough No 8, 20 yard pass from own half, Middlesbrough No 19, 20 yards dribble and cross from left, Middlesbrough No 18, shot off target...”

The match videos are also analysed by computer and the two combined to shape a complex mathematical formula that rates each player's individual contribution in terms of goals, shots, passes, dribbles, tackles, crosses, saves, clearances, blocks, interceptions and red and yellow cards.

Of course, such systems are far from perfect. There is no mechanism, for instance, for differentiating between a cautious George Boateng five yard square pass that plays a colleague into trouble and a sublime 60 yard cross field ball onto Mark Viduka’s toe and sets up a goal or between a routine tackle on the halfway line and a last gasp sliding challenge in the box.
But as a general overview it offers an interesting perspective and adds some objective meat to the on-going debate.

Downing comes out on top of all the creative categories for Boro but the highest rated player in the overall Index is the season’s surprise package Pogatetz, a player transformed from shaky and rash tackling left back to rock solid central defender by the classy presence of Jonathan Woodgate.

Mad Dog finished 37th in the overall rankings and was rated as the ninth best defender in the league thanks to a robust approach that saw him make 76 tackles, 69 clearances, 21 interceptions and 30 blocks - including two from point blank piledrivers at Wigan that would have crushed the ribcage of a mere mortal.

The battle scarred Austrian also scored twice to bump up his stats. It may be a flaw in the matrix that puts him ahead of Woodgate, although the £7m new boy has shown positional sense so acute that he rarely has to tackle. Boro’s top tackler was Boateng with 72, although it has been cruelly suggested most of those were his second touch.

The Index rated Didier Drogba as the player of the player with a score of 628 with Ronaldo, Dimitar Berbatov and Rooney just behind and with Mikel Arteta, Gareth Barry, Benni McCarthy and Gabriel Agbonlahor in the top ten.

As well as Pogo (37) and Downing (45) Boro had Mark Schwarzer (53rd), Mark Viduka (59th) and Andrew Taylor (78th) in the top 100.

Comments (27)

alf wrote...

how can you take actim index serious when woodgate isn't in the top 100 and viduka is 59th

**AV writes: As I said, Woodgate doesn't do tackles and there is no way of measuring instinctive reading of the game and consumate positioning. Viduka doesn't rank alongside the top strikers because he missed seven weeks and the ratings are culmulative, which is another flaw.

Posted by: alf  | May 21, 2007 3:50 PM

Ian Gill wrote...

I saw the Opta stats which had Downing as the top crosser in the premiership. In my fantasy football competition I think he is fifth or sixth midfield player.

This brings us back to one of my continued themes, what would have happened if we had a fox in the box who made runs across the defenders, pulled away at the far post, could actually head a ball. It doesnt matter who is on the wing if there is nobody to take advantage of the service.

**AV writes: Imagine him putting crosses in for say Man United, a team that break quickly and would have three men in the box to get onto them.

Posted by: Ian Gill  | May 21, 2007 5:15 PM

Shaun wrote...

Downing is a great outlet. He seems to drift in and out of games a bit but I wouldn't have anyone else on the left-hand side of the pitch. Next season is a big one for him and I'm certain he will grow in stature.

Oh and Vic, he's a Pally Park lad through and through! We played in the same primary school team together and he used to single-handedly tear teams to shreds.

**AV writes: Pally Park. I am getting my Boro heroes mixed up.

Posted by: Shaun  | May 21, 2007 5:56 PM

Adam Newton wrote...

"DOWNING baiters, listen up. The left footed line hugger is Boro’s most potent creative force - and that’s official!"

Orrrrrrrr!

Posted by: Adam Newton  | May 21, 2007 8:05 PM

alf wrote...

reminds me of the gazette star ratings. its weighted towards the players who play most of the games. Its the sum of the star ratings rather than the mean. It should be something like the mean of marks out of 10 with a player needing a minimum of 10 games to qualify

Posted by: alf  | May 22, 2007 12:14 AM

Nigel wrote...

The stats. are always interesting to read and over a season give a decent indication of how a player has performed.

They are clearly flawed though, the actim is a case in point, the fact that strikers are so prominent in the top ten show they are biased toward those that score goals rather than those that stop them or create them.

Stewie had a good season despite the 'chicken runners' who seem determined to see him fail or hounded out. I think next season he will do even better, especially if GS buys a good right winger to give another creative outlet on the opposite side of the pitch which will then stretch opposition defences a little.

I continue to read/listen to all the footie rumours and there is a lot of talk about Utd., Liverpool etc looking for strikers but Vidukas name never gets mentioned, I don't know if thats good or bad..........

**AV writes: Thye won't want him, his Actim score is too low.

Posted by: Nigel  | May 22, 2007 9:01 AM

Never Happy wrote...

Every Boro fan deep down knows that Downing is our most creative player, but the moaners have to have something to whinge about and local boy makes good is they favorite target.

Downing, Arca and Taylor are developing game by game as a left sided trio, if only we had a decent right sided midfielder + RB to balance the team.

Then again the right sided problem has been ongoing for the last few seasons so there is obviously no rush.

Posted by: Never Happy  | May 22, 2007 9:09 AM

red_rebel wrote...

I know its 'just a bit of fun' but these stats do point to a few truths that cut through the white noise of back-biting and malicious chuntering.

Stewy IS our most creative player. Everything productive goes through him and has done for years now. If he is not firing Boro struggle because there is no Plan B. That must urgently be addressed to give us options and take the weight off him.

Pogo IS the most hard working defender. Woody may have the finesse and positioning but Pogo does the charging down and throwing himself in where the boots are flying. He is strong, brave and hard working and deserves the credit for it.

Viduka IS our best striker. A long spell injured didn't stop him overhauling the Yak, who has played pretty much every game up until the last few weeks, on goals, shots, assists. Plus there is the unquntifiable stuff like holding up and stretching defences.

Taylor IS a very promising youngsters. He has been consistent enough to make that position his own and look assured in the Premiership despite his age and with very little fuss.

It is no surprise a lot of the others don't feature because apart from the odd short lived upturn Boro have not been consistent and have not created enough to rack up the points.

Posted by: red_rebel  | May 22, 2007 9:54 AM

Holgate Ender wrote...

we need the real stats not these poncy pundit spin ones. misplaced passes, wasted crosses, missed sitters, back passes, hospital balls, gifted possession, played them onside, bottled tackles, flapped at balls into box. then wed get a real picture of how bad boro have been thise season.

Posted by: Holgate Ender  | May 22, 2007 10:07 AM

alf wrote...

As i suspected those stats prove that pogi and taylor are making woodgate look a better defender. We should make pogi captain next season.

Posted by: alf  | May 22, 2007 10:14 AM

Ian Gill wrote...

I dont think stats can prove or disprove everything but what is clearly true is that with Taylor and Pogo at the back and Arca and Downing in midfield the left side of the team is much stronger than the right where we have tried sundry combinations.

What has been lacking is some continuity by mixing and matching (maybe mismatching is more appropriate) on the right side. We did not give Morrison and a full back a decent run to develop a partnership.

The benefits have been shown on the left, they were also there with Cranky, Bolo and Downing. We have long struggled trying to play Parlour or Mendi out wide.

We have Morrison, Cat and Boat playing one or two matches in partnership with Xavier, Parnaby or Davies. We have even played Arca and Johnson on the right.

Forget all the personal preferences about players we like or dont like, the net result is that we dont know if Morrison is the answer, if Davies is the solution at right back. Would Parnaby have made the position his own if given a run? Should Xavier have been given another year? The fact is no-one has had a long enough run to stake a claim.

Posted by: Ian Gill  | May 22, 2007 11:11 AM

Never Happy wrote...

Viduka will not sign for Liverpool as he can not speak Spanish!

Posted by: Never Happy  | May 22, 2007 12:35 PM

tonyblack wrote...

I think the guy's overrated to be honest. Don't get me wrong i do think he's good but just not that good and certainly not as good as everyone makes out. If one of the big four came in with a lot of money for him i'd certainly let him go.

But i do have to concede that he has done a solid job for us but for me he's hit a peak and doesn't seem to be hungry enough to get through it, but i could well be wrong.

Maybe in a better team he would step up to the plate, but at the moment i think that he's stuck in the comfort zone because he's a home town lad who's place isn't threatend enough for him to get out of it.

TB

Posted by: tonyblack  | May 22, 2007 2:22 PM

Nigel wrote...

Holgate Ender,

There is only one stat. that counts, the teams position at the end of the season, but even that can be looked at in more than one way. Either you look at the prem. table and see Boro are the twelth best team in England or you see they were so bad they just avoided relegation. My glass is always half full so I see the 12th best team in England, what do you see?

TB - Let me guess, you think Massimo should have been given a chance on the left wing!

Posted by: Nigel  | May 22, 2007 3:13 PM

vinny G wrote...

I have been impressed with poogitez this season, he has matured and got rid of that silly haircut and looks a proper boro lad but without the dirty violence.

He is making woodgates job easier as he does the physical side of defending and wins all the headers, this leaves woodgate to run his fingers through his hair and pick up any loose balls.

Pogitez for captain. He has won me over and will go alongway with boro. Better choice than the lightweight riggot. If only steve mcClaren had realised pogitez is a centre back not a left back!

Posted by: vinny G  | May 22, 2007 4:57 PM

Ian Gill wrote...

If events unfold as predicted in the media (about as reliable as the diagnosis of injuries at Rockcliffe) then we may be short of strikers with Dong Goal Less as the only one left.

On the plus side we have sorted out the right side midfield and full back problem by being interested in a Scottish centre half. Mmmmm!

What to do. Well, we sent a full squad of veterans and back room staff to the sevens in the far east. Olly and Molly are involved with a childrens book based at MFC. AV promises that the injury to the blog has been sorted.

That is the good news. In the words of the prophet Elijah 'Gan away to hell and s***te'.

Of course it is only paper talk and spin, there is plenty of time to 31st August. Shame I am on holiday from the 27th.

On the plus side if we do get in someone on the right and someone who can attack the ball in the box that would lift things.

Posted by: Ian Gill  | May 22, 2007 8:46 PM

tonyblack wrote...

Nigel,

i'm not a boo boy and when i've been able to afford to go to games i've cheered him on as i did with all the players.

Downing is a good player, i just don't happen to think he's that good, that's all.

For sure he can whip in a good cross most of the time, but i feel that he should take players on more and he should be more attacking in his play and in his mentality.

I think he's too much of a one trick pony at the moment. He can cross and that's just about it. You can't compare him to someone like Beckham ( who some people also ccuse of being a one trick pony e.t.c. ) as his passing ability is pin point and so are his free kicks. Downing isn't anywhere near in the same league as Beckham.

I'm not saying that he won't improve, no not at all. He's come on leaps and bounds in the last few years but i just feel that for some time that he's come to a stand still and he's being doing just enough and for me that's not enough.

I think that the new challenge of a bigger club would bring him on no end. Obviously i'd rather he stayed here and did exactly the same thing here and if you're telling me that GS and co are capable of developing him into this then i'm more than happy to go with that.

But i'm not going to praise him extra just because he's a local lad or because of some stats analysis. This season he's been way too hit and miss for me and that's just my opinion.

If i were GS i would get Viduka to end this bloody soap opera and tell us all his intentions as all we ever hear coming out of this club is endless talk of him and i feel that although he is absolutely vital to the team, that he is now becoming a major distraction and slowing down the accuisitions of the new blood we need to get back into europe.

You could be right that Downing is as amazing as some people say he is and i would love to be proved wrong and to have to come here at the end of next season and have to admit that i was so wrong.

So let's see it on a regular basis.

TB

Posted by: tonyblack  | May 22, 2007 11:32 PM

Ian Gill wrote...

TB

At Downings age I think Beckham was on loan at Preston. Giggs was spraying the stands with crosses and shots with beetroot face pulling his hair out.

He isnt as good as them so sundry posters can keep the abuse to themselves but he should improve.

Downing isnt the one trick pony, its the team that is the problem with no balance to it and the lack of a striker that operates in the box.

If we had someone who could attack the ball, someone to give balance on the right and Viduka staying with us then we could be a fearsome proposition going forward. Then you would find Downing attacking fullbacks, look how Ronaldo was neutralised by Chelsea by having SWP tracking back and the lack of a proper striker - you cant operate if there is no space and no one to cross to

Downing is the sympton, not the cause. Adam Johnson would be in the same situation. We have been crying out for a right side midfield player for some years now.

Posted by: Ian Gill  | May 23, 2007 9:36 AM

vinny G wrote...

I see southgate rang viduka,viduka was on the beach and more interested in discussing the type of ice cream he wanted than signing a new contract for boro.

Come on boro he is taking the mick,time to force his hand and move on either way.Lets not turn it into another zenden situation.

Posted by: vinny G  | May 23, 2007 10:19 AM

alf wrote...

why does downing always get compared to beckham? Can't imagine downing strutting his stuff around hollywood with tom cruise. I'd rather he looked at giggs as a role model. A far better player than beckham. Beckham only had 5 good years really but giggs has been doing it for last 14!

Posted by: alf  | May 23, 2007 10:54 AM

tonyblack wrote...

Hi Ian,

hope you're well.

I only mentioned Beckham because this is what people usually throw back at me saying that he also can't tackle, head the ball, run at players and yet he plays for Real Madrid.

I'm only too happy to go with what you are saying here, and very much look forward to be proved wrong about Downing here, but then this begs the question of if and when we're going to sort this endless problem out.

Unless i'm very mcuh mistaken the right sided issue has been turned into a saga over the last few years which never seems to get cured.

We've all been banging on about it for an eternity and so has Bernie and co, but the powers that be at the club still haven't sorted it out.

As said, i think Downing's good, but not that good.

This season, despite what you think the problem is, he has put in some very effective performnaces, and yet for much of the time he has been totally anonymous.

Perhaps he's suffering from all the turmoil of a new manager who is learning as he goes, or the fact that the team as a whole hasn't performed well this season, or simply because at times his motivation is simply lacking.

I really don't know, but however good he is i don't think that it can be said that this has been his best season for us or that he has played at a consistently high level throughout the season.

This is why i mentioned Viduka. If he wants to stay then the least he owes us is that he sorts it out quickly either way so that we can move forwards and concentrate on the types of things that you have just highlighted.

The same goes for Yakubu. Is he happy or not ? Yes, do all we can to keep them both as they are one of the best partnerships in the Premiership, but if they don't want to stay then fine, but we need to know and GS needs to sort it out so asap.

TB

Posted by: tonyblack  | May 23, 2007 11:11 AM

Ian Gill wrote...

TB

I certainly dont think Downing is a world beater, he is a good player and a useful asset.

The problem is that we lack the player in central midfield that makes the whole team tick, a striker who will attack the ball in the area and we have no balance to the team.

Downing is a sidehow to all this, he is the top crosser in the premiership but what is the point if we have no one who will attack the ball or make runs?

Posted by: Ian Gill  | May 23, 2007 12:52 PM

Shaun wrote...

What Ian Gill said is spot on. At the minute, Downing is our ONLY creative outlet. We're too predictable and that makes it easy for teams to contain us.

I think this season has not been great for Stewy and I would not be surprised if his confidence has taken a banging as a result. When Zenden left, he called Downing one of the most special young talents he had ever seen. He has the ability but we need more outlets.

The right-side has been a problem for too long. The most successful clubs in the Premiership have balance, and that is how they hurt teams. Perhaps when, and if, this problem is addressed in the Summer, Downing will get back to his best and start producing again.

Posted by: Shaun  | May 23, 2007 3:48 PM

Clive Hurren wrote...

TB

Maybe the problem with Stewy is that if he has a bad game, the boo-boys get on his back far too quickly. I'm damn sure I wouldn't want to face that if I wasn't doing too well one day, yet still having to run up and down the wing in front of them.

Yet to his credit, he's stuck at it. He's still here, not moaning, still getting stuck in for Boro. And still having more good games than poor ones, still capable of tearing the opposition to shreds, as Wigan will testify.

Downing's a prize asset. I say to everybody - Get off the lad's back.

Posted by: Clive Hurren  | May 23, 2007 5:06 PM

dave wrote...

Don't think the boo boys effect downing that much because his form away from the Riverside is generally poor. But at home he is a lot better player.

The boo boys aren't that bad compared to those at Ayresome Park when it was so quiet the players could hear each individual comment

Posted by: dave  | May 24, 2007 12:37 AM

Martin wrote...

I'm glad to see Downing has a way to get some recognition from people other than Boro fans.

He is a good player but it's always the same thing from him. He goes on the counter but then messes about going round players and by the time he gets a cross in, the opposition have everyone back in the box.

He also needs to stop going outside every single time. It annoys me when he does it because the player he is trying to get past knows exactly what he is going to do.

He has a good right foot on him so why doesn't he cut inside once in a while.

Martin

Posted by: Martin  | May 25, 2007 1:52 AM

Shaun wrote...

I think Stewy silenced a few of his critics last night, didn't he?

Posted by: Shaun  | May 26, 2007 7:16 AM

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