IN THE past few days there has been an upsurge of optimism bubbling through fissures in the concrete casing of cynicism that envelops Teesside insisting that Boro can somehow beat an awesome Manchester United at the Riverside.
That has got me really wound up. Not that I would ever knock unbridled or even unjustified optimism. It is the belief in the power of faith to engineer the unlikely, the improbable and downright impossible that is the dynamic of fandom. That quality I admire and rejoice in.
No, what riles me is the myopic and fatally flawed stupidity of the statement that inevitably accompanies wild-eyed predictions of a Man U massacre: "Well, Boro always win against the big teams." No they don't. They usually get battered .
It annoys me (althought I admit I am easily annoyed) that so many apparently knowledgable people establish their credentials as long time home and away supporters steeped in realism before wheeling out that jarring phrase with an air of scientific certainty as if its mathematical validity had been tested to destruction and pronounced sound by a legion of ace number crunchers from the South Bank School of Soccerlogical Statistical Studies.
The theorem goes almost unchallenged in the pubs and clubs, on the bus and on the phone-ins where it is bandied about with an arrogant air of certainty. This Three Legends Iron Law of Inverse Status Reversal apparently proves that Boro's level of matchday achievement is in direct proportion to the league position of the opposition. Watford = lose and play rubbish; Man United or Chelsea = win and play like world beaters. That's science. You can't argue with it.
And yet.... Boro's record against the top teams is actually very poor indeed. In fact, in recent years the team has been cannon fodder for the Big Three. Yes, Boro ground out a plucky 2-1 win at home to Arsenal last year... but we were humiliated 7-0 at Highbury, a result that is far more in keeping with the enduring reality of the power balance with the Gunners,
Last season Boro not only beat Arsenal at the Riverside but also battered Manchester United 4-1 with a famous once-in-a-generation gubbing then completed an elite triple crown by beating Chelsea 3-0 in the aftermath of the Red Book throwing watershed. But let's be honest: those results were freaks. The season was a statistical abberation. Please, please, please don't dash off to the bookies and put your mortgage on a result based on such superficial data.
Look, the year before Boro took just one - ONE - point from a possible 18 in the six games against the same sides. They squandered a 3-1 lead to lose 5-3 at Highbury and lost 1-0 in the return, they drew 1-1 with Man United and lost 2-0 and went down 1-0 and 2-0 against Chelsea.
The year before that it was four points from 18: Juninho (2) and Job scoring in a 3-2 win at Old Trafford and a goalless draw with Chelsea balanced out by two four goal spankings by Arsenal in the league (and another in the FA Cup) and a 2-1 reverse to Chelsea and 1-0 to United.
Before that - 2002/03 - it was four points from 18 with a win away at United and a gritty 1-1 draw with Chelsea in the credit column, along with the fact that Boro twice kept Arsenal down to 2-0.
The season before that it was four points from 18.... stop me if you can see a pattern emerging ... with the obligatory win away at Old Trafford and a 2-2 draw with Chelsea to boast about.
So while last season's bumper haul was very welcome, in fact, those points probably saved Boro from an undignified end of seasom scramble for survival, but I wouldn't start budgeting on it at the bookies or building into your projections for the end of season points tally. The average points tally from the big three over the last five season is 4.25. Hardly the stuff of terrace chants or commemorative t-shirts. And certainly not the title dreambusting record you would believe listening to the more one-eyed and absent-minded among the Riverside crowd.
The willingness of football fans to dissolve their logic into wishful thinking and the last good result to produce optimism is understandable - but to mak ethe mental leap from there to talk of some kind of historical inevitability is bizzare. Never mind. If Boro get battered by United we will soon bounce back - It is Spurs next and we always win there.
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