About this blog

Untypical Boro is a lively topical blog by the Evening Gazette's award winning football columnist Anthony Vickers that aims to get behind the headlines to flesh out the stories that Boro fans are talking about.

Incisive, provocative and well informed it seeks to engage with articulate supporters and give them a platform to help set the agenda on the issues that matter.

Recent comments

Recent Posts

Sponsored links

Archives

Links

Advertiser

Sponsored links


Results Swing Lennie's Law In Boro's Favour

Posted by on November 12, 2006 10:25 PM | 

GAMES played plus two (Gp+2 = S). That was shrewd survivalist Lennie Lawrence's time tested Maths of the Day formula proving the points needed for successful top flight trapdoor dancing.

Incidentally, I like the picture of Lennie as a survivalist, eeking out a combat-clad Spartan existance on the moors, eating the small furry victims of cunningly constructed traps and building a home-from-home bender from twigs and animal pelts, taking advantage of the solitude to work on new theoretical models of the points-per-game ratios needed for promotion.

But going by his earlier pre-hunter'gatherer work, the seminal "Lawrence Law", Boro are currently bang on target for yet another prediction of "top six this time, deffo" in next years Red Book renewal plea after a watershed weekend of number-crunching Premiership fun.

If, like me, you are already anxiously watching other teams' results then there are some reasons for relief and celebration - and bemused headscratching - after the latest round of Premiership games as a string of results went Boro's way.

Watford - who beat Boro, who beat Chelsea - were spanked by Jose Mourinho's increasingly paranoid victims of an insidious refereeing plot. That ended the Hornet's purple patch (a goalless draw with Charlton and the win over our heroes) and banged another few nails in the coffin. Meanwhile Charlton's own revival (0-0 draw with Newcastle, beat Man City) also dissolved with a 3-2 defeat at Wigan that left them rock bottom and facing the lid coming down there too.

Usefully Blackburn lost too, 1-0 at home to Man United while Sheffield United's late revival in a 2-2 draw earned them a point and moved them out of the bottom three for the first time. The Blades have Man United next but the face West Ham, Watford and Charlton in quick succession which could shape their fate. Three draws would be nice.

But maybe a more significant result for Boro came as mediocre Man City and non-descript Newacastle conspired to produce a fearful goalless draw of Boro-Charlton tedium proportions that suited neither. It left City thrashing around like a non-swimmer in the wave pool at Center Parcs and the striker light Geordies - who play Arsenal and Portsmouth next - in the relagtion zone and staring anxiously at the big black and white panic button and wondering if Fat Freddy, twitchy Glenn or would be Messiah Big Al Shearer will push it first .

Boro need the results to kindly keep going that way - but we can't rely on it.

Boro's scrappy win was perhaps the biggest result of the day in the bottom six. After woeful, inept and frankly embarrassing but, sadly, oh so predictable defeats to City and Watford, Boro won ugly against "in form" - these terms are all relative - West Ham and burst their bubble.

The result, a textbook six pointer lifted Boro above the 'Ammers, City, Blackburn and above Lennie Lawrence's survival threshold. And, almost unbelieveably, it lifted the unpredicatble team within three points of seventh placed Everton - who we have beaten.

The stuttering, erratic, bizarre season so far is summed up when you consider that there are now seven teams below Boro - and four of them (City, Watford, the Blades and Blackburn) have beaten us. We can't afford to lose any of the returns if we are to stick with Lennie's formula.

Comments (13)

John Powls wrote...

Vic

I fear we're all in for a season of veering between being Mystic Meg and Stephen Hawkin - with a bit of Eeyore thrown in!

Pity - if, instead of sooth sayers and rocket scientists, senior people at the club were to listen to the accummulated football wisdom on this Blog then it really isn't rocket science or clairvoyance.

It just needs some straight forward application of first football principles and then we wouldn't have the conundrum to solve.

But, hey, when have they ever listened to anyone outside the Riverdside Ivory Tower.

Posted by: John Powls  | November 13, 2006 8:10 AM

Jay wrote...

John. Even if everyone on these boards agrees that doesn't make the ideas right.

In fact what is 'right' we'll never know as we can't perform multiple experiments starting from exactly the same conditions and see which one is best.

Sometimes it looks like every time the Boro lose some people assume that that makes their alternative ideas right. When in fact maybe we would have lost following the alternative route

Posted by: Jay  | November 13, 2006 10:12 AM

Nigel wrote...

In the short term having beaten The Hammers I can now enjoy the week a little more than otherwise.

I have to say that before the match I didn't like the look of the stats which showed West Ham haven't won at the Riverside since 1990 or whatever it was. Still my worries were ill founded....just.

Looking forward it does feel somewhat bizzare that we are only 3 points from seventh, I'm not sure what that says for the quality of the prem at the moment.

What I do know is that playing 4-5-1 at home is not the answer, a point proven by the fact that when a second striker came on we managed to score.

I also believe that Massimo deserves a run of games to prove (or not) that he has what it takes. Its a better alternative than one up front.

We still need an injection of self belief and positive thinking before the team starts to prosper, I can't see how the current tactics are going to achieve this.

To end on statistics I see that Liverpool have lost their last five away fixtures in the prem. I don't like the sound of that! Hopefully Benitez will continue to play Gerrard on the right and give us a chance!

Posted by: Nigel  | November 13, 2006 10:57 AM

Ian Gill wrote...

4-5-1, the dreaded system, luckily there is George W Bush to prevent it being the source of all ill in the world.

The reality is that we have the width (as long as Mendi, Parnaby or Ray dont appear on the right) and the Greta Garbo striker 'I vant to be alone' to make it work. We need a 'Wayne Rooney' to be the link, someone like a younger Sheringham wouldnt go amiss. Someone who can play give and goes, someone who can run at defences and make a pass would be alright

It wont work without the willingness to get forward. If we play Cat and Boat the third centre mid field player must be pushed forward. Maybe this could be a role for Roch (away from our penalty box where his tricks are better suited).

Who knows? Fact is we will play the same formation in the next few matches. Liverpool at home, Villa away, and ManU home. If we keep playing in the same way with the same people we may even build up some continuity, some confidence and then set people free to attack.

The two holding players give the licence for the full backs, the wingers and the free man in the middle to bomb on and play tricks around their box and not ours, to join and get past Yak.

The danger is that it becomes like a game of table football with everybody rigidly in their positions. But that is true of all formations, in the end it is the players who make it work or not.

Lastly, you need players in positions suited to their abilities. And before the abuse arrives I dont like defensive football.

Posted by: Ian Gill  | November 13, 2006 11:36 AM

Ian Gill wrote...

And another thing, it dawns on me that Morrison could be behind Yak and Maccarone on the right.

These are positions they can play as we have been told that Morrison started in that role and we have seen Maccarone bomb on several times.

It certainly wouldnt be the same as Downing on the right or Roch on the left.

Whatever, I cant see us playing a rigid 4-4-2 against Liverpool, certainly Arsenal played a fluid system against the scousers and gave them a spanking.

Posted by: Ian Gill  | November 13, 2006 11:52 AM

Jay wrote...

Nigel. You ask how 351 can inject self belief and positive thinking. Well, think of the alternative. 442 can see your midfield overrun and consequently lose you the game. Hardly good for morale. If you disagree you are also disagreeing with most of the top bosses in the Premiership. 442 is not the magic cure-all answer.

**AV writes: 351?

Posted by: Jay  | November 13, 2006 2:28 PM

Jay wrote...

You know what I mean! 451

AV** I didn't know if it was 451 or 352, or if we had had a gadge sent off. That's why I asked.

Posted by: Jay  | November 13, 2006 3:11 PM

Nigel wrote...

Jay, prehaps we could play 3-5-2 and also get the bugler (spelling?) back from Brucie's time. That would be fun!

Seriously though I'm not to worried about disagreeing with most of the Prem managers as on the whole I think they are a conservative bunch who worry more about losing than they do about winning.

Being in the minority doesn't necessarily make you wrong. But I do agree that 442 isn't an answer in itself, in fact the formation is incidental to the team having confidence etc.

I just feel that 451 may send out the wrong message to the players and have a negative effect on confidence.

Still seeing the next three fixtures fills me with hope, no Watford, Reading, or Sheff. Utd. Great, we should be in the top six in three weeks time!

Posted by: Nigel  | November 13, 2006 3:17 PM

J.C. Marske wrote...

I have no problems with 451, it will work if the players make it work.The problem is they all want to play like a bunch of school kids and drift into the centre.

When Downing and especially Morrison played where they were supposed to play we looked a better team.
Twice Rochenbach had the ball up field with no one to play it to because Downing and Morrison had both moved in field. I think they wanted to hold hands.

What we need is a good box to box player. Cattermole could fill the role even if he had to be replaced before the end. As an example Pogy nearly gave away a penalty but forgot about it and charged up field after the ball he had just cleared, carried on running and if the ball had been played a little quicker over the top might well have scored.

The point is he left the rest of them standing and was off side anyway. It is that sort of commitment that I go to watch so lets have a bit more of that from some of the other players and we will not have too many problems.

If we can beat Liverpool by 4 goals we will go above them in the league. I am quietly confident but will probably drowning my sorrows in drink at 7pm

Posted by: J.C. Marske  | November 13, 2006 3:51 PM

Ian Gill wrote...

Jay

I wondered if 3-5-1 was a team with one of the 'Last of the summer wine' employees getting a game.

I do agree with you about the formations, as I said elsewhere Liverpool played 4-4-2 against the Gunners who played their preferred 4-5 and Henry playing where he likes. Liverpool got a spanking because they were overun in midfield and got passed to death. Anyone remember a side going to Highbury and playing 4-4-2 and a right footed player on the left in front of an 18 year old debutant?

Those with long memories will remember Wenger bemoaning 'defensive teams'. Translated into English that means 'people who wont play four against my five in midfield'. Often those who nominally play 442 are normally 4-4-1-1. That is a key reason why ManU are more effective with Saha than Sherpa van, he is much more mobile and allows their super, mobile attacking players to link up with Rooney the floater.

Nobody would class Manu or the Gunners as boring. Sadly if you dont play 451 properly it is boring but if you play 442 without a player dropping off then you are asking for trouble against the bulk of the premiership. Do we have anyone for that role? Answers on a postcard.

My preference would be the 442 or 4411 but do we have the players?

Posted by: Ian Gill  | November 13, 2006 4:31 PM

Never Happy wrote...

Nigel you are right, most managers and teams are more worried about losing.

What the managers and coaching staff do not seem to grasp is that one win = 3 draws.

Why not attempt to win home and away and not serve up the boring, action free dross, that as I Boro fan I have now become accustomed to watching?

I also think that the player to solve Boro’s lack of a link between midfield and attack is David Nugent. However as I have said before, Don Mackay probably does not know where Preston is. No doubt if Nugent was a 34 year old Italian or Spanish has been, he would be the top of dozy Don’s hit list.

Posted by: Never Happy  | November 13, 2006 4:47 PM

Ian Gill wrote...

Never Happy

He would be sat in the stands as a lifetime member of club 33-40.

Posted by: Ian Gill  | November 14, 2006 9:00 AM

Never Happy wrote...

If the staff and players at MFC were only paid in the form of a productitvity bonus, the club would have the lowest wage bill in football.

The lack of foresight shown from the Marketing Dept (wrong blog), coaching staff, scouting system through to the first team defies belief. It makes you think, how the hell did Steve Gibson become a successful businessman?

Posted by: Never Happy  | November 14, 2006 3:43 PM

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

Advertiser