BORO have sold just over 20,000 season tickets - and that's official!
After weeks of guestimation and doom-mongering in which the Teesside tittle-tattle pointed to a meltdown of terrifying proportions, the actual sale so far shows that the Riverside fan base is holding steady... although there are some under-lying trends that should give cause for concern.
"As it stands now we have sold a shade over 20,000," said Boro communications chief Dave Allan. "And we continue to sell them each day so we hope that we can add considerably more before the kick-off."
As it stands that is well over 3,000 season ticket holders that have not renewed. In truth it could have been far, far more. We can only speculate on the figure had the divisive Steve McClaren still been in charge.
First it must be stated that the overall direction of season ticket sales has been down for years at the kind of gradient most commonly associated with Ormesby Bank and this figure is not some disastrous or unexpected plunge. From almost 29,000 in Bryan Robson's last season the figures slipped year on year under McClaren despite Carling Cup success, a highest ever Premiership position and two campaigns in Europe, last season's culminating in that memorable and momentuous day in Eindhoven.
Last season, at the height of the anti-McClaren feeling, initial sales were not much better than they they are now but nudged up towards just short of 24,000 after the Christmas half-season ticket presents were dished out. Whether there is any slack left to allow a similar growth this term is yet to be seen.
Secondly it must be pointed out that this is not peculiar to Boro. Premiership crowds are generally down. While the big four continue to pack them in and there are short term boosts for whoever's turn it is to make a shock bid for fifth place next, the rest are finding it hard to sell a flawed product: two-thirds of the uncompetitive Premiership have no realistic chance of tasting glory and for half - or more - the only ambition is survival.
The fans are voting with their feet. Increasingly they are not willing or not able to pay over the odds for a hollow product. Increasingly they are turning instead to television and either spending their cash on the home comforts of a digibox or indulging in an echo of the spirit of the terrace, stood pint in hand in their local watching live and direct on Al Jazeera or the Scandawegian networks and spending their ticket money on beer.
Steve Gibson has been unfortunate that Boro's Golden Age has coincided with a widespread cultural defection from the game, but then, the tides of history have never been with us. Typical Boro, saving that moment of glory for when crowds are falling away, when the buzz has gone and there is rising discontent at boring football, sterile atmospheres, unjustifiable wages and diving prima donna players who show no loyalty or passion.
Cost is a major factor too. Although this season prices have been frozen, on average they have risen by 7% a year for the best part of a decade, and at a time when inflation has been around the 2.5% mark and utility bills have edged upwards at a far higher rate than incomes. In a low wage economy like Teesside, football is an expensive hobby.
The diehards will continue to make sacrifices to follow their heroes. Especially those fans who have travelled abroad with Boro, to Xanthi, Stuttgart, Zurich, Rome, Basel, Bucharest or Eindhoven and who are still paying off the plastic. There will always be those who will sell a family member on eBay to finance their football - but there are many others who simply can not keep pace.
"We are well aware of the cost involved," said Dave Allan. "Some of our supporters spent the equivalent of the price of their season ticket in Eindhoven alone. We want to make football affordable at Middlesbrough. That is why we have frozen ticket prices and extended concessions for younger supporters throughout the ground ."
But anyone hoping for a more aggressive marketing exercise involving heavily discounted tickets targetted on specific matches or towards schools or community groups can think again. "We won't be going down the road of some clubs and virtually giving the tickets away," said Allan.
The discounts for younger fans have proved a great success, although an exact breakdown of the numbers is not yet available. It has been a glaringly obvious problem in the demographics for years. The season-ticket sell-out in the early years of the Riverside effectively had the crowd suspended in time. They grew older - and fatter - together and became as one with their seat but that effectively denied new generations their chance.
That closed shop stopped the flow of fresh blood for several years, then when seats did become available they were in the wrong places, the expensive West and East Upper where there were no concessions and where category A tickets last season were a pocket-money busting £19.
One of the most refreshing things about the UEFA Cup games against Basel and Bucharest and the Charlton FA Cup game was that, with ticket offers in place and so many season ticket holders declining their own seat, there were gangs of teenagers going togther for the first time in a decade. They were getting a taste of the narcotic atmosphere of watching a passionate match alongside friends unrestrained by parential control and many will want to come again. That the club are striving to make that possible is commendable.
But that increased take-up at the bottom end of the age spectrum disguises a steady stream of older fans walking away from the game. Anacdotal evidence suggests many of those who have hummed-and-ahhed over renewal for years have now made the break, either because of cost, or because of 'boring' football or because of changing personal circumstances: kids, mortgages, divorces, second homes in Cala Millor. Some long serving S and T Red Bookers have quit because they lost out in the free-for-all for Eindhoven tickets. Some will pick and choose their games and may be won back by exciting football and exciting times but many will drift away or go to the pub.
And that change in the demographics will have a financial impact too. If 5,000 adult Red Bookers bail out of the posh seats at £500 a shot and are replaced by 5,000 kids paying £150 then the club will inevitably feel the pinch. Already the falling crowds have caused some political ripples with Keith Lamb warning darkly last season that "Teesside will get the club it can afford."
That said, the club can make up the season ticket cash short fall far more effectively on the pitch. At £750,000 a place in the Premiership table the last day defeat to Fulham was far most damaging than a few thousand defectors.
That is where the club can best address the situation. Winning more games and finishing in the big money spots will relieve any pressure caused by falling crowds. And winning in style will put bums on seats again and create a Riverside buzz that is far better marketing than any special offer.
*There are more musings on the season ticket issue in today's Big Picture column in the old-fashioned, steam-driven paper version of the Evening Gazette.
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