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Stats Question England's Ability To Step Up

Posted by on June 26, 2006 2:09 PM | 

"ENGLAND always play better against the bigger sides." That is the straw-clutching consensus among England optimists as they struggle to square hope and ambition with the unconvincing evidence of a lacklustre start.

Where has that misconception come from? It flies in the face of all the evidence. There is no golden rule that says England automatically raise their game once the World Cup stakes rise, that somehow they go through a tournament gradually moving up the gears. Brazil maybe. Goofy and Co can stumble through the early rounds then step up to spell-binding brilliance when faced with a really good side. But England?

Nope. The statement just doesn't stand up to scrutiny. I've heard it said about Boro and it is not true then either. Historically England play badly but get past the middle-ranking, the makeweights and the minnows but then signally FAIL to step up and play better when they meet the big boys. Look at the results...

Since the high point of 1966 England have got a very poor record when going head- to-head against the footballing superpowers. Even the most zealous and blinkered patriot would find it hard to argue with the stats.

In 1970 in the group they beat both Czechoslvakia and Romania 1-0 but lost by the same score to Brazil then in the quarter-final let slip a two goal to go down 3-2 in extra time to West Germany.
So, No marks beaten 2 Good teams beaten 0.

In 1974 Sir Alf's ageing team failed to qualify for the finals in resurgent Germany from a three team group including giants Wales and Poland so were left untested against the elite.

In 1978 their chances to qualify for Argentina were disappeared after England beat Luxembourg and Finland and won one apiece with Italy to be squeezed out on goal difference.

In 1982 they put a Dark Age of cruel Jock jibes behind them and qualified for Spain easily. They cruised through the group winning all of their three games against France, Czechoslovakia and Kuwait but in the second group stage faced Spain and Germany and went out after failing to score in their two draws.
No marks beaten 2 Good teams beaten 0.

In 1986 in Spain England finished second in their group after drawing with table-toppers Morocco, beating Poland and losing to basement boys Portugal. They squeezed past Paraguay 1-0 in the second round before losing 2-1 to Maradona in the quarter-finals.
No marks beaten 2 Good teams beaten 0.

In 1990, their best display since winning, England beat Egypt and drew with Holland and the Republic of Ireland in the groups to finish top then in the second round edged past Belgium courtesy of David Platt's career-shaping volley in extra-time. After that it was another tight extra-time win, over Cameroon, before middle-class media friendly football was born with Gazza's blubbing, Nessun Dorma and the drama of losing on penalties to Germany.
No marks beaten 2 Good teams beaten 0.

in 1994 the Turnip's team again failed to qualify from a tough group in which they thrashed Turkey, San Marino and Poland but lost and drew to Holland and ther was that iconic moment of 'Mrs Thatcher, your boys took one hell of a beating' commentary against suprise table-toppers Norway.

In 1998 in France they Hod's bods beat Tunisia and Hamilton Ricard's Colombia but lost to Romania to finish second in the group then despite that Michael Owen wonder goal went out in the second round against Argentian, losing 4-3 in extra time ("I'm not blaming David [Beckham] but he cost us the game," - Ian Wright).
No marks beaten 2 Good teams beaten 0.

In 2002 in Japorea England finally beat one of the elite. Having been plonked in the group of death Sven's men drew with Sweden and Nigeria and dished out a breakfast time beating to Argentian. Well, 1-0. With a penna. But who cares. They all count. In the second round England thrashed Denmark to send optimism levels soaring before Ronaldinho lobbed Seaman as Brazil won 2-1 in the quarter-final.
No marks beaten 1 Good teams beaten 1.

2006, so far: Paraguay and T&T obviously count as no marks. Are Sweden a good side? They looked it against England but not against Germany. Ecuador? Probably the worst team in the last 16. Now it is time for England to defy the stats and step up a gear to cast off the weight of an underachieving history outlined here.
No marks beaten 3 Good teams beaten ....TBC



Comments (5)

Andy S wrote...

Not totally accurate Anthony, even by your own measures. France in 1982 were unlucky losing semi-finalists, not "no marks". Cameroon in 1990 beat Argentina, the defending champs (and that year's beaten finalists).

But your quoted hypothesis was that England "always play better" against the better sides, not that they always win. On that basis, the performances against Brazil in 1970, against Germany in 1990, and against Argentina in 1998 all support the hypothesis.

Yes, it's a quiet spell waiting for Switzerland v Ukraine...


*AV writes:

Andy, I had Kuwait and the Czechs down as the no-marks in 1982 rather than France, and Egypt and Belgium in 1990 not Cameroon. But you make a good point, sometimes they do PLAY better against the big boys but unfortunately the stats show they rarely produce better results*.


*

Posted by: Andy S  | June 26, 2006 6:55 PM

Ian Gill wrote...

Andy S

Having watched Switzerland v Ukraine I switched over to River Cottage on Discovery Home and Leisure. The Saddle Back pig judging at the local fete had far more action.

Posted by: Ian Gill  | June 26, 2006 11:20 PM

red_rebel wrote...

I don't see why people should expect England to get any better. They are an average team. One semi-final in 40 years hardly makes them a super-power.

Getting to the last 16 is about right. If they get any further than the last eight then they will be punching above their historical weight.

Posted by: red_rebel  | June 27, 2006 10:35 AM

Never Happy wrote...

The main problem with this England team is Sven and Mac. First priority, keep a clean sheet. If we score first, defend at all costs don't go for the second killer goal.

As a Boro fan I am happy that McClaren has the England job, as an England fan I am gutted that MaClaren has got the England job.

He will continue to with exactly the same tactic's as Sven because he has a major input into them. If Sven / McClaren had any balls Beckham would at least have been substituted earlier in all of Englands games so far. Lampard or Gerrard would be selected, not both and Crouch would be on the sofa back home.

The policy seems to be that X amount of players must be chosen from, Man U, L'Pool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs. Why else would Walcott or Crouch have been selected. If Dean Ashton had signed for L'Pool and Crouch had signed for West Ham which one of the two do you think would have been at the World Cup? Walcott's selection has all the trademarks of a David Dein intervention.

It was laughable when Sven says Defoe or Wright-Phillips have not played enough PL games then selects a 17 year old who has not played any PL football at all.

England can progress against a depleted Portuguese side, however if the 4 -1-4-1 formation used against Eqcudor is used again I fear Portugal will simply out pass England.

Its sad that what is perceived as a golden generation of players for England has been managed and coached by two of the most negative football people on the planet.

Thankfully with MaClaren gone, Boro golden generation of players might be allowed to express themselves with freedom on the pitch and not be told to defend first at all costs.

Posted by: Never Happy  | June 27, 2006 1:01 PM

David wrote...

Given how England have been playing, the only way is up!

Posted by: David  | June 27, 2006 7:01 PM

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