GAMBLE: financial speculation, a calculated risk on a game on chance, a wager on one of several possible outcomes.
Now, I like a daft quid on the correct score or the Grand National as much as the next man (unless the next man happens to be Paul Merson) but I don't take it too seriously. I wouldn't for instance let the way the bookies frame their odds influence my own judgement on any major issues of the day.
But it seems plenty of Boro fans are getting overly excited by the fluctuations in the betting market and are starting to confuse the troughs and peaks in a would-be manager's price at the bookies with a real prospect of them becoming the new boss. Some may even think that at a tasty 12-1 there is a realistic prospect of Bernie Slaven taking the job.
The internet has transformed the gambling business, not just the volume but the nature of betting. With on-line accounts people can slap a tenner on in a flash from their office so prices can swing wildly at the first hint of any development whatsoever and a Sky Sports newsflash can cause chaos at the cyber turf accountants.
So Alan Curbishly is spotted getting a taxi to Heathrow by an eagle-eyed Boro fan at 10am and then as he e-mails and texts all his mates hoping they can make a killing at 8-1 the odds tumble dramatically to 15/8. Then alert punters see the price moving quickly and all pile in too assuming there must be something in it. Then Curbs plane leaves for Tenerife at 11am and he slowly drifts back out to 18-1.
News travels quickly now and gamblers - and the bookies - react immediately. Tony Mowbray started as a strong candidate at about 8-1 but after his talks with Ipswich he drifted to 18-1. When he withdrew from the job his price was slashed immediately as low as 3-1 or 4-1 on the assumption that he must be making himself available for Boro but after news that first Teesside Tel then Martin O'Neill have been offered it he has gone back out to 10-1.
Kevin Keegan went from 100-1 to 33-1 and there seemed to be a bandwagon building last week on the basis that he had been spotted driving along the A19. Yes, he could be going to Hurworth, the Riverside or Bulkhaul HQ on Riverside Park - but it's much more likely he is visiting his Wynyard property.
Back in March gullible punters were sucked in by a strong internet rumour that George Graham was 'nailed on' for Newcastle and sites offering to good to be true odds of 66-1 and 80-1 were inundated with eager new customers wagering tens, twenty and even hundreds of pounds on the Scot. The rumour gathered strength and spread through internet fan sites and the odds were slashed as low as 4-1 the next day before surprised Newcastle had to issue a denial. The bubble burst leaving mug punters feeling sheepish and bookies feeling flush.
Assumptions are made too whenever betting is suspended. Naturally many will believe that particular bookies are no longer taking bets on their favourite because "it is a done deal" and go searching for other slower,firms still offering odds and put money there instead. In fact betting is routinely suspended as part of the site housekeeping, when a new name is added to the list or while the bookies try to assess how a large ammount of money coming in should be reflected in their odds.
A lot of money has been wasted as punters have chased a big pay-off on the basis of transparent rumours that fly in the face of logic. Southgate has been as low as 13-2 despite not having his coaches badges. You could get 16-1 on Ravanelli as well last week making the Italian Whine look a more likely successor to Mac than David O'Leary, Steve Bruce, Chris Coleman and Alex McLeish.
Given the speed of communications, the sports websites pedalling gossip and guesswork as news and the vibrant network of fans internet message boards that pass on every scrap of information quickly it is no surprise that so much out their in cyber-space is contradictory. No surprise either that given an eager audience and no editorial control that it is open to manipulation either by mischief making rumour mongers or by those seeking to ramp prices in order to make a quick buck by laying bets elsewhere.
Punters should be wary of using the fluctuations of odds as any kind of guide to anything other than the likelihood of the bookie making money. But if you see Big Phil Scolari having a quick pint in the Laurel or Chris Coleman parking up at the Riverside let me know. I know where I can still get 33-1 for them.
- Post to:
del.icio.us
Digg
Newsvine
Nowpublic
Reddit
« Previous | Home | Next »