Boro Turnstiles In A Spin Over Dole Queue
A PICTURE paints a thousand words - and I'm throwing in the same again for free. Here's a very telling graphic plus my own analysis of what appears a direct correlation between Boro's attendance figures and the Teesside dole queue.
In recent years we have talked a lot on here about the price sensitivity of tickets and the role of recession in depressing gates, and we have tried to make anecdotal links between the current climate and previous bleaker times when Boro were in trouble. So here's some concrete evidence to add meat to the bones of the debate.
The unemployment figures are from the Office of National Statistics and relate to the seasonally adjusted annual average unemployment rate in the Northern Region over the past 40 years. The attendance figures are Boro's annual average over the same period. Let's crunch numbers...
ON A bleak night in February 1985, just 3,477 demoralised fans turned out to witness Boro slip to a 2-1 defeat to Oldham at a moribund Ayresome Park.
Four days later the crowd lurched lower still to hit rock bottom. A meagre 3,364 saw Willie Maddren's ailing side slump 1-0 to Notts County, the lowest ever league crowd at Ayresome in almost 100 years of professional football.
That season a club sliding towards liquidation recorded 14 gates under 5,000 and posted a sparse average of just 5,135, the worst since stepping out of the Victorian quaintness and sepia tinted parochialism of the Northern League for the modernity of the Football League in 1899.
That sickening season in the mid-80s was bleak. With the few remaining stars flogged off in the Charlie Amer fire sales, mounting debts spinning out of control and gates in freefall, the future of the club looked gloomy. There was a real stench of death about crumbling Ayresome Park.
But while the crowds were hitting an all time low, unemployment figures on Teesside were rocketing. Just look at the blue line soar painfully, relentless upwards on the graph.
Remember, Teesside's heavy industry was starting to be slowly dismantled in the first signs of a seismic structural shift in Britain's economy.
Engineering giants Head Wrightson's at Mandale had finally closed the previous year after years of withering and the rapidly shrinking Smith's Docks at South Bank was to follow quickly in 1986 leaving thousands of highly skilled Teessiders signing on.
The twin powerhouses of the local economy, British Steel and ICI, the foundations of our "Infant Hercules" were locked into a frantic spiral of job cuts that would throw tens of thousands more on the dole with a corrosive knock-on effect in related firms and a ruinous ripple down the high streets and through the estates of an area dependent on them.
And with Margaret Thatcher's government pursuing a ruthless slash and burn policy of public spending cuts, thousands more jobs were being pruned from local authorities and health and education in an area always acutely vulnerable to such seismic convulsions in Whitehall.
In 1985 Teesside looked like it was shutting down. A generation of youngsters had left schools and went straight to sign on and collect their UB40 - including me - while whole layers of the highly skilled recently unemployed joined the "diasBoro" and were scouring England and Europe and beyond for work, many never to return.
Teesside's response to the hardship inspired both gallows humour and small screen zeitgeist hit Auf Wiedersehen Pet (and to a lesser extent The Black Stuff) at the time, although that was stolen and repackaged as other regional stereotypes. But that's just Boronoia and I digress.
As the recession ravaged Teesside a string of local names in the retail sector went under - Frankie Dees, Lowcocks, Gaskins, Nimans, even the fabled Boro Fish Bar - and the impact was also felt at the Ayresome turnstiles. With belts being tightened, days out at the match, especially when the team was so woeful, was the first casualty.
Just as Boro's gates scraped dangerously along the bottom plunging the club into crisis, Teesside's unemployment figures peaked as the proportion of the workforce signing on hit a post-War high of 11.8%.
The peak and trough on the graph at this point is the starkest illustration possible of the direct correlation between Boro attendances and dislocation in the local economy.
But there are other inescapable spikes and dips too. There seems a direct relationship between the dole queue and the click of the turnstile.
In the short but sharp recession of the early 1990s Teesside faced rapidly rising jobless figures once again, a wave of house repossessions as mortgage rates soared and the structural shift from industry to the service sector had accelerated and had hit the local economy hard.
As the unemployment rate nudged back up from 7.1% (which was painful but we had grown used to it) to the double digit damage of 10.4% between 1990 and 1993, crowds fell back quickly from a bubbling Bruce Rioch top flight high of 19,999 to a dismal and divided Lennie Lawrence limp finale of 10,400.
And that was at a time when Boro were riding high. After the climb from the coffin Boro had enjoyed two successive promotions then after the dip in the last days of Brucie, there was a play-off push and a promotion and a renewed ability to sign players. It should have been a period of at least stability in gates but in fact the average was almost halved.
And crowds have dipped again in recent years too, from 28,428 in the last Premier League season to an average of 16,269 last term, a catastrophic 12,000 plunge in three admittedly calamitous seasons.
But while the poor quality of the football on offer has undoubtedly been a major factor in the fall - we've discussed that to death - it would be wrong to dismiss the economic context lightly.
Through the Riverside Revolution boom years unemployment on Teesside dropped back and then stayed roughly at the 5% mark before, in the last three years, it has climbed back up to 7.8%. There have been further convulsions in the local economy as the steel, chemical and engineering industries hav econtracted further and even our saviours from the service sector have suffered. Garlands going under was as painful as the blow to Corus. Unemployment on Teesside is again in the national spotlight and as one of the areas most vulnerable to another round of mooted public sector spending cuts there is probably more to come. http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/mar/07/bitter-pride-corus-mothballing-teesside
Certainly the club have not dismissed the wider finances of the area. Chairman Steve Gibson often points out that Teesside is one of the lowest waged regions of the country, has pockets of quite severe deprivation - and especially in the estates that were once the heartland of support - with generally significantly higher levels of unemployment and benefit dependency than the national average and as a consequence, Boro is operating on a far lower income base than their rivals.
Even given the fact the club have frozen season ticket prices for six years - given inflation it is almost 20% cheaper now than five years ago - and junior prices have been slashed, the drop in gates has been alarming.
And not just gate income but merchandising and hospitality revenue has taken a big hit. In recent years Teesside has been getting the team it can afford.
When times are hard people start to cut back on luxuries. And when the season ticket renewals arrive and a family of four are looking at £1,000 they face a big decision. With rising unemployment and widespread economic uncertainty it is no surprise that so many households have decided against that particular luxury.
Even match by match, going to watch the Boro is expensive. The dad and lad matchday experience rarely comes in at less than £40 these days, and that is a luxury beyond most families on the dole.
Likewise in the previous slumps. In Maggie's eighties depression that blighted Teesside the match was an obvious area to trim a budget.
It was the generally young, working class men, those in their late teens and early 20s - the prime terrace years - that bore the brunt of unemployment. While going to the match was relatively cheap if you were working, £2.80 plus the price of a pint or two with mates, it was a big chunk out of a £19 giro.
Plus, maybe just as importantly, this is the group most likely to have jumped on Norman Tebbit's proverbial bike and leave Teesside in search of work. I know I did. Labour was our biggest export in the 80s and early 90s - it still is now - and that must have a direct impact on gates too.
Of course, you can't discount the quality of football or intangibles like success and a buzz round the Boro. But success doesn't automatically lead to higher gates. If times are tight, finance has a far bigger impact. People may want to go to the match but they can't magic up money that isn't there just because Boro are on a good run.
For example, Jack Charlton's promotion season doubled gates and in that first golden top flight campaign they peaked at an average 28,604, but good finishes in a sustained spell of First Division football hat followed was not enough to halt a dramatic slide in gates as unemployment started to rise rapidly in the region.
John Neal took over in 1977 and played some attractive football exclusively in the top flight but nevertheless his reign saw gates collapse from 21,500 when he took over to 13,400 when he left. In the same period unemployment rates in Teesside had rocketed again from 5.6% to 10.7%. The impact of signing on outweighs a the impact of a purple patch for the team.
Similarly, the feelgood factor that had the Boro buzzing after escaping liquidation, after the fairytale return to the top tier and a team of local lads living the dream in a first Wembley appearance should have been reflected in gates for years to come.
But after years of steady decline from a mid-80s high of 11.8% to a still painful but more manageable 7.1%, unemployment took off once more in the recession of 1990 and when Boro should have been reaping the long-term benefit of the Rioch revival and renewed stability, they were struggling as the dole queue topped 10% again.
More recently the scenario has been played out again. After Boro's Carling Cup win, a highest ever Premier League finish and a second success UEFA Cup campaign, gates actually went down as unemployment figures nudged up from 4.8% in 2004 to 7.7% in 2009, a mark where it still hovers at the present time.
So it seems there is no direct correlation between the perception of "success" on the pitch and crowds. But there most definitely is a visible link between unemployment and attendance.
(*This the 12 inch Crown House vs DJ Giro feat B1C remix of today's Big Picture Column)
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2000: Boro sign Mrs Karembeu from Real Madrid for £2.1m & agree to take husband Christian as part of deal #onthisboroday.... which is as good an excuse as any to reprint this:
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Vic - Where did you get permission to reprint a photo of my missus?
(Thats got to be worth a few gold stars from her)
(don't print that last bit..or she'll latch onto me)
(and don't print that bit either)
(etc etc )
Can relate to what you say as it happened to me in 1982. I got the opportunity to go to SA if you can call it an opportunity the way SA was in those days. But it was work which was one thing I didnt have.
So I for one who went to 95% of all home games as well as many away games went off the radar.
Have been in SA ever since and only get to Boro when I come home. Early 20s... everything fits the bill.
But as we both commented earlier the figures being quoted at present look very good.
Although commonsense would point to levels of unemployment having an impact on the gates nevertheless the graphic adds evidence to put it beyond doubt.
The question is what should the club do about it?
In purely economic terms it's important for the club to try and maintain the relationship through what is generally a temporary period of unemployment.
The economic value of a fan to a club is not measured game by game or season by season but over the lifetime of the relationship - it's every ticket ever bought, every shirt or piece of merchandise, and you can broaden it out to include family and friends who all support together
Going to matches is a habit, you get in to the routine...once you stop going you lose the routine, you get out of the habit and it's harder to pick it up again once things get better - you've found other interests, other things to do with your time
In emotional terms unemployment gives the club an opportunity to show that they value the relationship and that they care. You mentioned Lennie Lawrence AV: I will never forget that when I was unemployed and at my lowest he gave me two tickets and an invitation to meet him in the Directors Lounge pre-match - I can't tell you how much that meant to me, just the fact that he cared enough, the feeling that I was still part of the 'family' even though I wasn't in a position where I could support the club financially.
The club responding to the realities of unemployment makes the relationship two-way: it's not just that I care, and that I invest my money and time in supporting the club, but the club also cares, it extends a hand to help me at a time of need.
Everyone on here will understand the therapy that comes with attending a game - no matter how poor the performance - when you're struggling to survive until the daybreak
Perhaps they're doing this already, but when a season-ticket holder doesn't renew someone at the club should give them a call and try to find out the reasons why. If it's unemployment then there are a number of options open to the club any of which would help to maintain the relationship and strengthen the emotional attachment
As a minimum they could send complimentary tickets for a couple of games a season. At the other extreme they could maintain the season ticket at a nominal cost. If they approach it with the right underlying values, an understanding of the 'lifetime' value in the relationship, and with sensitivity, the club can strengthen the bond between club and fans, and profit over the longer term
**AV writes: Some interesting suggestions there. It would be nice to see the wider financial problems of the area acknowledged in some way, however it would take a major change in mindset from a club who has so far refused point-blank to even consider discounts for the unemployed.
Footballers have it all. Am I jealous? Yes...
Long winded, but a good read. I can see where unemployment can effect the gates, and also why Newcastle & Sunderland will always have a bigger following as they have a larger area, than us.
I still feel we should be getting 20k, as we are no longer the same club that we were in the 80's and that alone should help the fans through these tough times, and still go at least one home match on a month.
But if you haven't got it you haven't got it I guess .
UTB
**AV writes: Long winded? Me? Surely som emistake.
Very good article,
I left for the desert in 1980 as there was no future in Teesside.
Yeah, loads of us left; I took voluntary redundo at Smiths Dock and although based in the South have been on the road ever since.
I can remember defacing a toilet wall in Helsinki, with "Brucie Rioch's red and white army", the night we lost 0-1 at Chelsea and still went up.
Out here in Manila, they are big rugby fans and have pride in the fact that they are number 60-something in world rankings but no-one seems interested in English footie.
Just planning my parole trips in the next year to fit in with odd game. As you do...
I see no reason why we can't give out a hundred or so tickets (or even more) to the unemployed for every match. Yes I'm sure you would get people whingeing (it's not fair, I paid for mine), but I think you would just have to ignore that.
I'm sure the rate of unemployment in the area and the state of the econonmy generally has an impact on crowds, but if you replaced the unemployment line with a league position line on the graph, I imagine you'd get pretty much the same result?
If we are doing well, people will make sacrifices to go, if we aren't then they won't.
**AV writes: I toyed with putting a league position line on the graph but the scale never looked right.
The only logical way of doing it was a scale from 1st in the league down to the worst position of 3rd in division three but that covers 50 places and threw up some confusions: for instance a third or second division promotion campaign would be more attractive in some ways - more wins, more goals, bit of a buzz - than plodding along in 12th place in the top flight three or four years running but would appear a lot lower on the scale.
Plus, clearly what you are saying is demonstably not true. Consistent top half, top flight finishes under Charlton and Neal were played out to steadily dropping crowds through the late 70s and early 80s when if plotted against league position they should have remained level.
But, yes, I did think about adding that layer of data.
'Kevin Thomson vows to bounce back for Boro' - He should be banned from bouncing anywhere in case he does the other ankle...
Good Article AV.
In my case I left the Boro in 1990 for Glasgow, then Australia and now the US, so unfortunately I don't get to see too many games.
One thing I think the club should do is try and tap into the expat supporters, especially now that we are not in the Premiership and can't get to see Boro on the telly.
I currently pay £35 to subscribe to Boro World and listen to Ali Brownlee, although it tends to clash with the golf in the early part of the season.
If the club decided to do something for about £100-150 where I could download delayed podcast's both audio and video, then I would be up for it.
ps, What on earth does "Diasboro" mean ?
Up the Boro
**AV writes: It is a pun on the word 'diaspora', which is the scattering of the Jews across Europe under years of persecution. It is an accepted word in the vocabulary of the blog. It's in the Victionary.
Can we have the picture of Mrs Karembeu on the blog every day please?
There shouldnt be a discount for those unemployed I am afraid. Why should the working folk have to pay full price when the guy or gal in the next seat has paid less?
I think what the club should do in these harder times is reduce the tickets to a nice round £20. I am certain that more people would come through the gates if they did.
I am a Surrey based Boro fan and it riles me to have to pay £26 when I get home for a game. Does my support make me any less loyal than the punter who turns up every week and only pays £17.08??
Then there is the issue of buying tickets over the phone £2.50 "booking fee" making it £28.50 to go watch a game.
Keep the season ticket prices as they are because they offer great value, but please MFC, review those matchday prices.
On the opening game of this season when we play Pompey, there is a race meeting at Redcar and been a lover of racing I am seriously tempted by the latter £15 entry, a whole afternoon of entertainment, great value OR £26 minimum for 90 mins.
As one former post says, people fall into routines and when they fall out its hard to get them back in. For the first time ever, I am seriously considering not going to a game.....why??? It comes down to value for money.
I jumped on my Tebitmobile in 1990. Working at British steel I thought it best to jump before I was pushed.
I peddled off down the A1 thinking I'd spend a couple of years living it up in the 'smoke', got a puncture round about Barnet and still havent got it fixed.....
Nigel(Mumbia) is spot on, right now Boro need big support, bums on seats, fans sucking the ball into the net. The club should find a way of giving tickets to the unemployed/disadvantaged.
The pay back comes from bigger more passionate support and the knowldege that when those out of work are working again they'll pay back the loyalty the club has shown them (its a trust thing).
It could be done, where there's a will there's a way.
I particularly liked Paul's opening line, very Teesside I thought. He clearly wanted to complement AV '...a good read', but didnt want him getting above himself so he got his criticism in early: 'Long winded' I like it, great bit of writing!
When you look around the area, especially when the loonies in charge (insert your colour here) admitted that the last decade was a golden time, its quite sobering.
Yes there are pockets of physical evidence that may prop up the memory of a boom decade, but also the decay that wasnt sorted out in that brief spell looks even worse in the harsh light of todays dim light.
A quick look down some side streets in the Tees basin will show you things a hundred MIMAS, Middlehavens and Barrages cant disguise. Take a trip down Dovecote Street, or the Gresham area of Middlesbrough and wonder when the cavalry will arrive!
Anyhow, good to see the bloated, out of touch, ego driven organisation darn sarth has recruited one of their own.It makes Being Human look like a documentary!
Ditto - left for London to get a job and still live in the Sarf East [looking forward tio the Brighton match at the new stadium]. Good article and stats
Is it to be 'Deep Fried Mars Bar' moves to 'Turkish Delight' - let's hope so.
Keith Lamb on the FA Board? Aside from the jokes about the undead - or moribund, at least, do you think he'll now be able to get us back the three points?
Vic wrote: "Even given the fact the club have frozen season ticket prices for six years - given inflation it is almost 20% cheaper now than five years ago - and junior prices have been slashed"
I would have thought that would signal the clubs intent to recognise the financial hardship of the supporter.
As far as unemployed concessions go, just where do you draw the line? I am a big fan of concessionary rates for unemployed along the same line as Juniors and Senior citizens, but surely a balance has to be struck between sustainability and charity.
If you had say 10,000 seats available free of charge or at a reduced rate for unemployed people how would you police it if the demand exceeded the supply? How would a renewed interest from people prepared to pay money for that seat in times of success go down with the clubs policy of providing free/concessionary seats?
It pains me to see so many empty seats at the moment, but concessions would have to be available in times of success too, or in times of Man utd/Chelsea in FA Cup games.
What would the club do then when there was demand for tickets from people able to pay the going rate? It would be financial suicide from a club ill equipped to provide such generosity in order to fulfill its social obligations.
I am sure a solution is available from someone much more clever than me on how a balance can be struck.
Steve Gibson can never be accused of being out of touch with the people of Teesside and the economic hardships the region faces.
Great read as always.
Any recommendations for a bit of holiday reading? Just bought one of those kindle thingys
Roll on August!
UTB
AV - you pinpointed the "lads from the estates"... good arra's mate.
Seems lights years ago, when you had to be in the Holgate at 1 o'clock to get your place on the terrace or not get in at all.
If you missed the 12.30 263 at Ormesby from Redcar you'd be knackered, over 20 plus from Netherfields would board an already bulging bus, it was like going to an away game.
Once inside Gruesome, no inane DJ to put up with, just constant chanting and swaying and deafening volume, and unity...
Happy Days, never to return but not forgotten.......I'm filling up here....
"There shouldnt be a discount for those unemployed I am afraid. Why should the working folk have to pay full price when the guy or gal in the next seat has paid less?"
Do you feel the same about kids and over-65s?
Yes, we'd much rather have a half-empty ground as long as we can all smugly sit there in the knowledge that we've all paid the same.
Vic, if your last post brought a tear to the eye, then this one has me sobbing at my keyboard.
I imagine many responses to this thread will be anecdotal evidence (an oxymoron?) in support of the argument; so here's my tuppence ha'penny worth.
Six of my mates, all from the same Linthorpe Primary school were all habitual teenage attenders through the 80's. All seven independently left Teesside in the early 90's for economic reasons. None of us have returned to live.
Most of us live in the south east, any games we get to tend to be away games, most of us have young families, it's unlikely our children will become Boro fans, let alone supporters. (Tho' we may dream/encourage/cajole/threaten).
Thus from one local school, a half dozen supporters are lost from the weekly gate and the next generation are lost too. Repeat that across every Primary school and one can wonder what level of support can be achieved at The Riverside in the long term.
The economic hardships of Teesside don't just affect the immediate attendance figures, they clearly have a more subtle long term effect as well.
"The dad and lad matchday experience rarely comes in at less than £40 these days, and that is a luxury beyond most families on the dole." - Beyond ALL families I would imagine.
Though I would suggest the unemployed are suffering enough already..
Steve - You've been living in Surrey to long mate.
I left Teesside in the early 80's never to return but for visits to family and Boro.
My lad used to come with me to matches but gave up because he didnt want to spend my money for poor fare and a depressing journey back.
Whilst ticket prices have been frozen so has the entertainment. What hasnt been frozen is the cost of travel and the sundry bits and pieces that go with a day away.
As the economic environment hardens my income is being squeezed so it is away matches for me.
This has a double whammy, my ticket money goes to another club and I dont go to the Riverside.
Thats life.
That is a good read and nice bit of statistical research AV.
The stats and the resulting chart demonstrate that there is indeed some correlation between unemployment rates and attendance at the match. What it is that is driving that relationship can’t be proven from just the stats.
Finding the key driver behind this obvious phenomenon (high unemployment – low gates) should be something that the club be keen to do.
It is clear there will be a number of factors that contribute to the decline in attendance as unemployment rises. The most obvious factor is likely to be disposable income. So, measure average disposable income of a person in the area (express it as a percentage of average total income per person in the area) and plot that against attendance figures. If the hypothesis is good, we should see that as average disposable income falls, so do attendances.
So far so good, but we need to be a bit cannier about things and measure the average cost of a ticket as a percentage of average disposable income. If the hypothesis is still holding good, then attendance should rise as the cost of a ticket falls as a percentage of disposable income. We now have a crude model to predict the impact of variable ticket prices on match-day attendance given disposable income levels in the area.
A 10,000 crowd paying an average of £30 a ticket will generate £300,000 in gate receipts and a pretty poor atmosphere. A 15,000 crowd paying an average of £20 a ticket will also generate £300,000 in gate receipts and a better atmosphere. 20,000 @ £15 a ticket also generate £300,000 receipts and a better atmosphere still. So there is a compelling logic to charge less to encourage a bigger attendance, without diminishing your match day returns.
Equipped with this information the club should be able to calculate the optimal price for a ticket to generate the biggest crowd given the prevailing economic climate in the area during a season. So, ticket prices rising in the model as average disposable income rises and falling as disposable income falls.
Maybe the club shouldn’t be looking to maximise gate receipts by charging the most it thinks it can, but rather it should be looking to maximise (or optimise) attendance by organising ticket prices in relation to the optimal percentage of ticket price against average disposable income. That way they can maintain a predictable and consistent gate receipt and still get good crowds despite the unemployment rate! Seemples.
While we’re at it, let’s consider another hypothetical relationship, a measure between good results and high attendance. I might wonder that if as attendances start to decline, then overall performance (results) will follow downwards. Or, conversely, as attendance starts to rise, do results also improve?
I suppose you could measure results on a rolling 5 or 10 match average for the number of points (w=2, D=1, L=0 or something like that). Anyway, in this way, we might be able to measure the effect that a high match day attendance tends to have on the performance of the team.
Maybe together we can begin to develop the sound statistical model that is going sustain the club in the coming Golden Era part2. Hello…… is anyone still reading?
**AV writes: Good mathematical modelling. I think the waters are muddied because as well as the measurable factors of price, unemployment and league position there is also an unquantifiable factor in there somewhere too that is to do with quality . Or perception of quality. Or a perception of VFM at a time when household economics are strained.
What do other number crunchers think?
AV You should get someone at the club to read Nigel of Mumbai's excellent post, and then make them read it again, and again and again, until it finally gets into their thick skulls.
Urrrrrghhhhhhh this close season has been going on for ever. I’m so bored I have been imagining my dream results and goals I wish the Boro had achieved. In fact I have spent so much time and energy wishing they were real that they actually have come true.
The cure for boredom is the Boro. There is no cure for the Boro
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9LocYscTg&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5v_ARMs4aU (the first goal on the clip)
I seem to remember Steve Gibson saying, in one of those live radio interviews, "Why should somebody have to pay more just because he's got a job?" That's his attitude. So I can't imagine Boro doing any discounts for unemployed.
I think his attitude might have something to do with the fact that he and his partner were also lads from the estates that left school to go straight on the dole during that rising unemployment at the end of the seventies.
Unemployment isn't an unchangeable thing like Under 18 or Over 65. Where do you draw the line for discounts? Just the unemployed? Low paid workers? Disposable income? And so on.
**AV writes: Yes I accept there are difficulties with administering formal discounts for the unemployed and I don't know if many, or indeed any, clubs do a straightforward scheme like that. It isn't as simple as just showing a UB40 these days.
That said, there is a valuable PR opportunity here somewhere, a chance to maintain and reinforce relationships with supporters and show solidarity with the people most affected by the economic dislocation. There must be some form of pro-active scheme in alliance with various community/council/retraining/trade union/supporters groups to offer discretionary tickets in the same way the club work with schools.
Nigel Reeve said: "Can we have the picture of Mrs Karembeu on the blog every day please?"
Yes I agree. Now we get a 50 yr old journo's pic only - and every day.
Up the Boro!
AV - interesting stats, but not exactly six sigma, though I appreciate that you can make any stats and scales help make a point. Not that I am saying you have done so, because there does appear to be some correlation between unemployment and falling attendances in the English game.
However, I personally remain convinced that in Boro's case, falling attendances are almost always linked to performance, relegation and/or depth of feeling for the club in any given era. By this I mean whether the attending masses believe in the hype, and believe in what is currently being projected by the manager and board.
Now an article expanding on your very good one, looking at the historical aspect of our club, would be a worthwhile exercise. For example, the feelings around the Charlie Amer era, fuelled by negative Gazette articles and ill conceived sports halls, had a lot of fans turning away from the club, spiralling the club into freefall.
Similarly, though I personally liked Lennie Lawrence, a lot of fans around me began leaving the club, because they didn't like what was happening both on and off the pitch, they simply didn't believe in the man or the club anymore. Cue falling attendances. most of these people were not hit by the recession.
Again, Jack Charlton, and the plea for investment and big named signings. They never materialised, and the new fans who took up the cause, very quickly disappear. This happened again after the initial flush of the brand new brand Riverside had worn off. People look to jump off the bandwagon, and it isn't simple enough to always be attributed to unemployment.
**AV writes: So is the graph just coincidence then? Were the attitudinal shifts you point too widespread or was it just you? These things are so subjective that it is impossible to shape it as evidence. How do you plot an intangible general air of discontent? I agree there are what appear sea changes in public consensus and attitude but I'm not sure they are directly reflected in crowd figures because people tend to stay and moan and threaten to 'wrap in next year.' Maybe unemployment or the percieved threat of it offers an escape route, peace with honour?
AV - one way in which you might calculate relative league positions so they fit on a graph would be to allocate a certain number of points to the various positions. For example, a top third finish in the Prem (I wish!) gives 10 pts, a finish in the middle third 20 pts, and a bottom third 30 pts. A finish in the top third in the Championship gives 40 points, and so on. A bit crude, perhaps, but something similar might work so you can compare the effect of form on attendances.
**AV writes: But that would make a miserable relegation season in the top flight 'better' than a promotion season from the second, or even third division when all logic would tell you that more wins, more goals and a bigger buzz from those things would have more profound upward effect on gates.
I am actually working on another model to measure the "best" seasons weighted with league position, cups etc that starts with 92 points for a title win (insert your own joke here) down to zero for bottom of the fourth tier. Extra points for cup progress etc. It's all very complicated.
Bolton poised to swoop for Seb '57 varities of injury' Hines? Is this true or has sone lazy hack misread the squad numbers and confused Hines with Williams?
Or is that treacherous dog Wheater tapping them all up?
**AV writes: He's crocked with no return date so I think it unlikely.
Very interesting.
I've always been sceptical of the influence of economic factors on attendance, particularly when measured against team performance or (the more difficult to quantify) optimism.
This piece appears to show genuine evidence of a very real correlation.
The club should consider this evidence in it's future pricing policy, and react in a way that tries to mutually benefit itself and out of pocket supporters, whilst being sensitive to full paying customers.
A very tricky balancing act.
I would be in favour of offering unemployed supporters tickets at concessionary prices. That would seem a fair compromise, though even those kind of prices may be too much and, sadly, these things are open to abuse.
I like the graphic, but a statistical relationship doesn't imply one factor directly causes the other in statistics because unmeasured confounders may affect the relationship. As I think AV has noted, it's probably more complex than the graphic shows.
Re the "feel good factor", could you plot the percentage of matches wons per season (couldn't do actual number because championship has more games than premier league), the average number of goals per match in a season, or goal difference per season against attendance?
Perhaps higher percentage of matches won = happier fans, or more goals for than against would imply more wins / more entertaining matches?
**AV writes: That's not a bad idea for a rainy day.
AV, another good article mate, you keep on churning them out.
Agree bums on seats are what is essential, the more seats filled, the more cash coming into the tea lady's tin, the better biccies she can buy (does Hintons the grocers come into your list of business's that disappeared ?).
However as already indicated by some of my fellow bloggers, there is a direct and unmistaken correlation between 'bums on seats' and performance on the pitch, which if dross (as we have all witnessed), the good folks of Teesside will not move their collective bums to the Riverside.
Mogga has a massive (and I believe thankless) job in getting the balance right for Gibbo and the town. Still believe the resurrection (if it happens !) will take longer than we might hope for.
Good luck Boro, we all have that special place in our hearts for this region and our team
Sandy
Dubai
The matchday experience dosnt start at the game, it normally starts at the pub or the club.
Busses used to pick the fans up and take us to the game.
Maybe some ticket give aways at the pubs and clubs ie raffles. Clobber, programes sold on the bus, player visits to these places.
If you can't get the fans to the players, take the players to the fans.
The club play 23 home games. Why doesnt the club sell partial season tickets in blocks of seven games, paying say
£125 for an adult,and £40 for an under sixteen?
Some fans might at least give the club a chance to prove their worth and if they are doing ok, buy another block of seven.
Some fans might just pick and choose certain games to begin with, then decide to buy a partial ST.
Or you could even sell tickets in smaller blocks, say over the xmas period mid Nov to mid Jan, minimum three game block, £65 adult, £25 under sixteen. Could be a nice xmas present for some stay away fans
There are many ways to promote sales, you just have to be open to suggestions.
Very good article AV and some excellent statistics to get the ball rolling.
Re your conundrum about wins/league positions etc - it got me thinking of a possible way to map the crowd level vs. the results.
Semi-logically the attendance of a home game is followed by the result of the previous game(s). To enable any modelling at all you can assume that the attendance at one game is directly influenced by the previous game's result (whether that result be home or away).
You could then draw up a list of all of our fixtures, results and attendances for the year. For each home game look at the result in the previous game.
You will end up with three categories of home game:
- game following a win
- game following a draw
- game following a loss
You could then produce an average attendance for each of these categories (total attendance per category divided by number of games per category) to produce a theoretical attendance level.
Then plot out the actual attendances in each home game for the season (time along x axis) and plot the theoretical attendance based upon the previous games result. In theory that should allow you to see if the attendance at a game is in any way linked to the result that went before, and whether there is a compound decrease/increase in attendance if we are in a losing/winning run.
Or - perhaps you will have wasted hours of your life in front of an almanac and your computer, disillusioned your wife and family, and missed several Gazette reporting deadlines...
**AV writes: It sounds very complicated and I can see a major flaw. It relies on seeing ticket purchase as an independent and isolated mechanical action as if fans only decide on this week's game based on last week's result.
In fact (even setting aside the intangibles) over 85% of the crowd are already tied in to purchasing the next game via a season ticket. These days game to game fluctuations are mainly the result of differences in the away crowd and we can't be looking at the previous result of the away team too.
That's why I went by annual average or there is no way of plotting modern crowds against those in the 70s and 80s when it was largely a short term decision and game to game fluctuations could be massive.
Great article and one that has clearly touched a few nerves in terms of pricing.
I agree that handing out tickets to the unemployed is not the answer.
For me, there are two approaches.
Firstly we need to look at a more flexible pricing structure based on family tickets, say £50 for two adults and two kids. The club may argue they're losing ticket revenue, but
a) it's bringing in more revenue than empty seats do,
b) think of the increased spend on food, merchandise, programmes etc.
Secondly, if free tickets are being given out they should be given to schools. I'm sure there's a similar scheme running, but these kids are the club's future and need to drawn in to the Riverside as early as possible. Rotating 500 tickets among local schools would be a good start.
Yes, short term says this is lost revenue but long term it hopefully stops them being an armchair Chelsea fan and instead spend their hard earned cash on Boro as they grow up.
I'm taking into account Boro's loyal season ticket holders who have shelled out full whack for their tickets and that needs to be taken into account, maybe in the form of heavily reduced cup tickets or some other loyalty reward.
Ultimately, there are thousands of empty seats at The Riverside each week and the club has to strike a balancing act between making enough revenue to be profitable, whilst taking into account the economic situation in the town and surrounding catchment areas.
Surely, more games with higher attendances at lower prices is better than a graveyard atmosphere with 14,000 fans due to the current pricing system.
Dipometers, thermometers,wage-slash-o-meters,whatever you call them lets start scrolling to the black!
Skysports quotes:
A three-year deal is reportedly on the table for Kris Boyd and Eskisehirspor are set to pay Boro a nominal fee.
"This is a huge challenge," Boyd told the Daily Record.
"Eskisehirspor are ambitious and I want to help them achieve their goals. I can't wait to get started."
AV about time for some serious speculation about how much further the wages need to come down now.
Digard seems to be the last white elephant that is not required but there seems to be some warmth in the rumours Nice want him back.
Will that be it for departures?
How far off signing players are we?
Who aside from Digard is the next wanted expendable?
When can we start to buy?!?! Surely we are only one player off the "you can now buy" line or are we?
**AV writes: Boyd leaving will free up £1.5m off the wage bill. The exit of Arca and Taylor has already freed up another £2.5m plus. That good - but there's still quite a way to go I would have thought.
Basically, Boro really need to get rid of everyone on "Premier League" wages and then start rebuilding from scratch with a new lower, sustainable structure more appropriate to a team earning £10-12m a year.
Digard and McDonald are both on top half top flight money (there's another £3m plus between them) with Lita, Hoyte, Robson, McManus and Thomson all earning far, far more than the Championship average too. Whatever their individual qualities, we can't afford them. We must offload them if we are to stabilise and rebuild.
Point taken AV, although one thing we saw last season was that not everyone who was tied into attending the games were actually doing that!
But it's difficult to draw any meaningful analysis when the officially published attendance stats were open to such derision as ours were last season.
It would be interesting to see how the numbers of Season Ticket holders fluctuated over time in line with that graph - I wonder whether the peak in ST's that happened during the Riverside move and the excitement of the Robson era took a long time to drop back down, or whether there were sharp fluctuations?
**AV writes: From what I remember there were 13-14k S & T Red Book holders during the great Eindhoven ticket scramble so the sell out base of 25k from 1995 had held up quite well (they work on 10% churn each year through death, leaving for work/education etc).
It is impossible to work out ST figures before the Riverside as a lot of the Ayresome records were skipped when we moved.
The sale of Boyd, Digard and I would add Taylor will save us a lot of money but more important will not have any negative reaction to the squad that finished off so well last season. Taylor's replacement is already in the squad.
If Emmes or Lita leaves they will need replacing as they were both integral parts of the squad as was Arca but not sure how bad the knee job was and may need replacing.
Thompson getting injured I think will have disrupted any buying plans.
Finally Kink was only a bit part player last season and could be moved on as Halliday was a better prosect under TM.
If we can leave it at that then at least the squad will not be disrupted too much.
Still think we need a keeper.
AV - Your response to Boro Doug is scary and the problem is how many babies we can throw out with the bathwater without derailing the Mogganaut.
Assuming Boyd as a given, of the players you mentioned we could safely lose Digard and Hoyte without an effect on the squad.
By your reckoning and adding in Taylor/Arca that makes a saving of £6.5-7m. Is that a fair estimate.
What has been the effect of the players we released at the end of last season or had loans cancelled, how much does that come to in terms of money?
When we debated this last window was it around £10m we had to shed? Have Wheater and O'Neill been factored in to that figure. That leave us with Lita, Robbo, McDonald, Thommo amd McManus to consider.
I guess that if we could we may like to keep them all but maybe Lita and one of Robbo/Thommo could go but selling Thommo would be tricky as he is crocked. Maybe all have to go
What effect would the above have on the great unwashed? We are all prepared for the bloodletting but living away from Teesside it does look like the type of carnage that Forest, Leicester and Derby have suffered. All those leaving is a fire sale and the danger is that it can run out of control and be unstoppable.
When we all did our lists we thought we had indentified some players we could keep.
A quick fag packet breakdown of cuts and progress so far would be great if it isnt too much trouble for you AV - you know far more than us though I am am sure Uncle Eric going has upped the workload.
Speaking of such have we now got the Journo coverage that we can afford? Anyone new coming in or being promoted?
**AV writes: The key to the rebuilding is getting better and more consistent perfromances - or at least the same - for far less money.
Take Hoyte: he is probably on £15k a week. Maybe a bit more. Now, whether you think he is technically gifted, fast going forward and a great attacking asset or whatever (don't all rush to mount a defence) the point is that the average wage for a good, experience full-back that ticks all the boxes in this division is probably around the £3-4k mark. Even half his wage should get you one of the best two or three full-backs in the Championship.
Very few players in the Championship will be earning £15-18k a week and the ones that do are expected to rip the division apart pretty much every week in promotion chasing side. Most clubs paying that for a player are breaking their own wage ceiling for a top striker or a midfield playmaker that hurts the opposition.
Ditto all the others. If you don't get Premier League performances out of players on Premier League wages then you are in big trouble. We are now going into a costly third year of that thorny problem.
Mogga stated at the end of last season that he didnt need to sell any of his players that he wanted to keep.
On the basis he is a man who is a straight talker and he means what he says, I would assumee he'd be very happy to see the back of Boyd and Digard, he's already lost Tatlor and Arca, so if things work out and all four are gone soon, then will he want/does he need to loose Tommo, McManus, Robson and Robson?
I assume he'd be happy to loose Hoyte and maybe Lita.
I am also assuming that if Mogga is confident that Boyd and Digard are going to move on that he has no need to sell Emnes, the issue there of course is that Emnes may want to go, but even if that is true it alters the dynamicand allows Boro to hold out for a decent fee.
Concessions for the unemployed? That raises a few questions that does, maybe the right sided chairman doesnt think you deserve such concessions?
Age related concessions are easy to police and justify, but those based on such an arbitary situation as being officially out of work could just add to the resentment and perceived injustice of the whole beneit system, we all know people on the dole through no fault of their own and those that are there by choice, either way the harsh reality being that if they cannot afford a luxury then that is maybe the way it has to be.
How does that then cross with those on low incomes or low disposable incomes due to the general financial situation?
It rather points to the fairer situation of having lower overall pricing, and by that I dont mean a freeze, I mean a reduction, to get bums on seats, to cover up the faded pink pews of past optimism, its then a more accessible choice for everyone whatever their financial position is, like the post further back says, 30,000 bringing in the same amount of cash has benefits that far outweigh the same amount of cash in an empty room?
Developing a robust statistical model to drive the ticket pricing strategy to optimise revenue and attendance must be a bit of a Holy Grail for most clubs.
Clearly there are multiple factors that influence match day attendance and not all of them obvious to measure. But it is something the club should consider spending some time on doing, with the aim of maximising attendance while maintaining optimal gate receipts, definitely not the other way around.
No model will be perfect, but if the driver behind the idea is maximum attendance and not maximum revenue you are more likely to find a ticketing policy that will tend to give the optimal gate receipts whatever the economic climate and whatever other significant factors are included in the model, while maximising attendance.
I can think of all sorts of things to start to build into such a model, but it would take some serious effort to develop it ….. but that’s really what I think the club should be doing.
I like the ideas being floated around current performance and the effect it has on attendance. I’m not convinced that the effect of the previous result on its own is that significant. That’s why I suggested a rolling average ….. so looking at perhaps the last 10 results, to give a better indication of current form, regardless of the division.
Say W=2, D=1, L=0.
Now let’s add in some weighting to do with league position …. 5 = top 2, 4= top ¼, 3= top ½, 2= bottom ½, 1=bottom ¼ . Then add some weighting for the status of the division …. So 10=EPL, 7=Championship, 4=Div 1, 1=Other.
So the top index rating (UTOPIA) would be 10 wins out of 10 (10x2), top 2 (x5) in the EPL (x10) = 1000 (or 1000/1000=100%).
Here's what it would look like at the end (or start) of a few recent seasons:
SEASON W D L Pos Div Index as%
------------- ------- ---- ---- --- --- ----- -----
UTOPIA ((10x2)+(1x0)+(0x0))x5x10 = 1000 100.0%
2010/11 Start ((4x2)+(1x1)+(5x0))x1x7 = 63 6.3%
2010/11 End ((6x2)+(3x1)+(1x0))x3x7 = 315 31.5%
2009/10 Start ((5x2)+(2x1)+(3x0))x4x7 = 336 33.6%
2009/10 End ((3x2)+(5x1)+(2x0))x3x7 = 231 23.1%
2008/09 End ((1x2)+(3x1)+(6x0))x1x10 = 50 5.0%
2006/07 End ((3x2)+(1x1)+(6x0))x2x10 = 140 14.0%
2004/05 End ((3x2)+(4x1)+(3x0))x3x10 = 300 30.0%
It looks like 30% represents a run of decent form. It might need a bit of tweeking in the weightings to begin to plot this against matchday attendance, to better balance the difference in attractivness of the league (ie maybe Champ should be weighted a little lower).
All the same, it begins to give us a mechanism to compare current performance across the divisions.
This is the big problem is us knowing the figure and the cut that is necessary but not knowing when or who it includes.
The downside is we want to know as fans, the upside is the club does not want every buying club know exacting how much we are hurting!
Surely O'Neil is in the £20m figure, at least? he only left in Jan.
£1.5m boyd
£2.5 Arca and Taylor
£1.5m O'Neil
£1.5m Flood, Haas, Miller, Tavares et al combined any other suggestions on this guess total?
This is £7m in total. That does not include Wheater and Jones plus maybe one or two I have forgotten.
Plus add in Digard £1.5m thats £8.5m without Jones or Wheater being factored.
So I appreciate what you are saying AV that there are many we could do with losing and rehiring on lower wages but I got the feeling that McDonald, Thomson, Robson, Mick, Lita were still wanted for the next campaign?
By my maths when Digard goes we will be on £8.5m saved so not far off the £10m total.
Do you still feel many more are required or will leave after Digard? We seem so close to the target (by some none informed, highly unaccurate, pub bar maths!)
**AV writes: I think if we have to start the season with those players then Mogga is happy to suck it and see but ideally we would start from scratch and he coul dbring his own men in on sustainable long term structure wages while keeping the bank happy by reducing the wage bill.
If we have to keep those four or five luxury players it leaves no room for manoever as the season pans out and also means that next year we will have to rebuild again. Best get the major surgery over now I think.
AV -
Thanks for that but it still leaves a few questions.
The first is largely number crunching from someone with more knowledge than we have, step forward Mr Vickers and take a bow. A global look at where we are on the old wageometer on the way to sustainability.
Not easy I know but an award winning, shortlisted Journo should be in his element. A sort of David Conn of the Gazette.
The second is at what point does the new optimism take a battering if we did what appears to be a 'closing down' sale?
If MacDonald, Thommo, Robbo and McManus all left (some might say good riddance to Strachan's men) with Lita and Hoyte along with a couple of saleable academy players it would signal a real downsizing in many eyes. Not just to fit our income but in terms of taking away hope for the near future.
Like many I knew we had to cut and cut again but at some point hoped we would have some respite.
The danger is that all optimism built up at the end of last season with increased season ticket sales could dissipate with a poor August on the pitch to match that in the transfer market.
Going into September with a decimated squad and few points would continue the downward spiral set in place by the disastrous activities in August 2008.
If that is the way it has to be then it is only part of another cycle in the life of a Boro fan.
**AV writes: Boyd leaving will free up £1.5m off the wage bill. The exit of Arca and Taylor has already freed up another £2.5m plus. That good - but there's still quite a way to go I would have thought."
I thought we had to get from £20m to £10m? Assuming last year's £20m included at least £2m - £2.5m for Wheater and O'Neil's part season, then thats £6m+ saved.
Add in Digard - even if we need to contribute we should save £0.75m - £1m?
I think Lita and Emnes will go to Swansea - Lita to save wages and Emnes because a good transfer fee now is better than nothing in a years time when he is out of contract? Together they must be on £2m?
By my maths that's £9m saved, plus (although not wage saving) £2.5m - £3.5m transfer fees in for Lita and Emnes.
Given that Hoyte at least is out of contract next year - and presumably some of the other big earners are as well - so their wages are only a problem for one season and could be covered by transfer fees, does this not give us the leeway to get in some new blood?
We would definitely have to get in some new forwards if Emnes and Lita go. I assume all the midfield players connected with the club are being tried out to replace Arca, Taylor and Emnes?
My worry is the number of possibles who are going elsewhere - I see Philips is now linked with Blackpool for example.
**AV writes: Phillips is about 52!
There is some leeway but don't forget the new players coming in will mean fees plus wages so the wage savings are not an absolute.
I hate to say this mans name but was Mido part of this calculation as he was still on the books when Wheater and O'Neil left?
Getting back to the crowd debate, how many at were the Villa game when we lost so badly and the season ticket was hurled at the manager? That was definatly a very low point in our history. Very frustrating time for the fans.
I never knew that there was so many clever buggers either from, or living in, the Boro. I take my cap off to you lads, I got lost just reading Powmills blog never mind his maths, well done mate.
But, I’d like to hark back to Keenog from India’s thoughts on expats. I’m one of the Teesside gypsy’s that upped sticks way back in the late eighties and finished up here in Oz. I’ve made sure that my three lads support nobody else but the Boro, and when the grandkids come along I’ll make certain that they do as well, or else!!!
But, I’ve also had the pleasure of touting my stuff around the globe all my life and I can tell you this, Teesside, per head of population, has the biggest migratory expat workforce in the western world. Just take a look at the blogs on here, there’s at least twelve dropping a line in from afar and that’s not counting all that I’ve seen contributing here. We do it to keep up to speed with our beloved club and try to maintain the link to that little piece of Eden on the north east coast.
So, how does the club harness all that earning potential? I, for one, would be willing to partake of any scheme that sees money going in to a war chest to better our standing, but what can I get in return? I’m back over there for a sabbatical in August to see the family and I’ll be there for the Coventry game come rain, hail, snow or pestilence. I’ll also be round to the club shop to update my car stickers, a new mug or two and a shirt of course to bring back here, but I’m a once in a blue moon visitor that wants to know how we expats can help the locals that keep us afloat each week.
We are out here, how can we help???
All this wage talk is definitely getting very confusing - I agree that we need some kind of savings count-down/count-up thermometer type thingy.
Based upon the figures, and the players, being bandied about it looks as though this season is going to be one of further Championship consolidation - if we're lucky perhaps we can sneak into the play offs. However, based upon the need to re-build and the wages we need to shed, it could be another struggle.
The problem all goes back to value for money, and a lot of this is a hangover from the previous two managers. Look at our northern monochrome neighbours - relegated with us, players on arguably higher wages than us - but first time promotion and then consolidation in the big league.
The vital difference is the value for money that they got out of those premium wages. Nolan, Smith, Guthrie, Ameobi, Guitterez, Enrique - all big salaries, but all made big contributions to their promotion.
We had Digard, Mido, Hoyte, O'Neill, Alves - basically none of our big earners made any contribution to the following seasons campaign. Looking at that list you would reckon only on Mido (personal issues aside) being the right fit for the Championship. We were left with several expensive players who were not fit for purpose.
So, unlike a lot of other clubs who come down and can risk keeping their wage structure to try and come back up - we were hamstrung and needed to re-structure immediately. Then we went and backed Wee Gordon with big money for, again, players not necessarily fit for purpose. Boyd - since when can you afford to carry passengers in the Championship? McDonald - great movement but needs to be your star player supported by a big ugly target man, which we didn't buy.
I still believe Mogga will turn it around, but I don't envy the challenge he has. Unfortunately almost all of his premium players are the ones giving low/zero contribution to the cause. Not "ripping up the division" like Taraabt or Holt.
If I had to choose 4 players to get rid of it would be Hoyte, Boyd, Robson and Lita. All large wages, all in and out of games and none of them reliable enough to be worth the premium investment over a full season. Let's hope that Mogga can ship them out.
For those of us intrigued by all things Mido, he's just been jailed for assault. Read about it here: http://tinyurl.com/69q2qnl
Smoggy in exile -
It looks like Boyd is on his way. Maybe Digard as well.
You can pick any list you want of underperforming players. Add in McManus, Thomson etc. The prime problem we have is that most of the squad are not fit enough for long enough.
Our late season form seemed to coincide with Smallwood, Robbo and Thomo in the engine room but it didnt happen often enough.
Bailey, Flood, McMahon, Hines, Bates, Williams, Williams, Franks, all crocked at some time. The list is endless, no players got more than 40 games under their belts, three got over 30 yet clubs near the top had numerous players in those categories.
Robbo is one of the best at driving the team forward with five goals. Taylor and Arca game next as scoring midfielders but have left the building.
So we get rid of Robbo, Thommo is in the treatment room until October, do you remember when we last did a hatchet job on midfield? Summer window 2008. We collapsed and got relegated.
It comes back to my previous post about babies and bathwater.
It is a hell of balancing act that Mogga has got to do, we all have different favourites but Robbo would not be on my list of four to leave. Early season he played all over the place as Stricken kept shoring up the team, then he got injured. Luckily Rolls Rhys came along to drive the team bus and put out the kit.
Increase the length of the list and that becomes a diffrent matter
It is understood that Eskisehirspor are offering £15,000 more after tax than he currently earns at Boro. Crazy but I hope it's true in this case.
Also hope they offer us £2m in transfer fee, too. He is - after all - the all time record scorer in Scotland including Henrick Larssen (who after retiring started again plying for Man Utd).
Up the Boro!
If you believe the press - is there anyone left who does, at least at the National level - this tumblers are beginning to turn that might unlock a few deals.
Somewhat amusing that just as Deep Fried Mars Bar Man is arriving in Turkey, his prospective coach has been arrested over match fixing! Still, as long as it doesn't screw up the deal, eh.
The unfortunate piece of the puzzle is that Notlob seem to be back in for Rolls Rhys and Seb Hines. The former is more of an issue than the latter, at present, of course - but neither are amongst the cadre of big earners that need to be moved on.
In the article covering the very predictable but nonetheless poor news that Thomo's out for three months (& I think that's the least of it) on the MFC website there's some interesting stuff lower down on Mogga's views about the rest of the midfield resource, Tayls and Rolls Rhys's best position (in defence) that's worth a read.
As we knew - and as AV reminds us - Mogga's got some kind of task on his hands to get the team off to a decent start in these circumstances and he'll probably be keen to see the end of August!
John Bowman - How did you find that story?!?! Is it your local rag?
Boro Doug said:
John Bowman - How did you find that (Mido) story?!?! Is it your local rag?
*****
Forwarded by friends!!
The problem with the wagebillguessometer is that we don't know who was included in the £20m annual figure.
If it was taken from last pre-season (after Strachan's early summer signings), then Mido, Digard, Wheater, Taylor, Arca and Flood would all have been included. Of the imports that are still here, only Zemmama would not be included.
That must equate to roughly three quarters of the £10m the club wish to cut back. If Digard and Boyd go then we'll be there. Any other sales and we'll be able to recruit.
That's the way I see it, unless of course, Mido et al aren't included in that £20m sum.
First of all he signed for us when there was mooted premier interest, and more money on offer in Turkey.
He has never bad mouthed the club.
He went out on loan ( to some god forsaken land, I forget where) saving us money and has now moved on. Not sat and taken the money, but gone and up rooted his family, which he didn't want to do.
This helps us get out of a big mess, I think that should be appreciated.
But there will always be people who will give him jip. These are probably the same people who won't walk 15 mins down the road to support the club they profess to love.
Thanks kris and good luck
**AV writes: Balanced point of view. A sense of perspective. Detached and sober position untainted by subjective vitriol. Are you sure you're in the right place?
So, Boyd has gone to Turkey according to the Boro website.
The sad part about it is that Boro are saying no fee was involved. Is this because Boro are notoriouly bad in achieving value for money in their sales of players or indicative of the financial state the club is in, in that they are just glad to shift him of the books and took the first offer that came along i.e. No fee?
If it's the latter then expect more outgoings on the cheap. Mogga's statement the Boro are not a selling club is likely to be severely put to the test over the coming weeks.
**AV writes: It is fantastic business by Boro. They have shaved £1.5m off the wage and managed to unload a player that would have been next to impossible to sell in England because his salary is too high for Championship clubs (and Scottish ones) and he is not good enough for the Premier League sides who can afford him. The alternative was to keep him and pay £30,000 a week for someone to sit on the bench and occasionally come on and lumber about fruitlessly.
Smogonthetyne now in on the Moon -
Fair comment. He will be fondly remembered. Wasn't he good as a sweeper (domestic help)?
Any news on Digard, yet? AV, could you please ask Uncle Eric? Oh no, Eric's gone, isn't he?
Up the Boro!
So it looks like Boyd is on his way, that's a great bit of business for Boro and relatively early in the transfer window, excellent news. I dont like the idea of losing Rhys Williams though even if it is for £4 million.
I guess we all know it is great business to get Boyd's £30k off the books - and probably more than a lot of us thought would happen. But all football fans think outgoing players should be worth more and incoming ones should cost less.
In Boyd's case, I guess the fact that someone was wiling to pay him at least what he earned here each year for three years - which means £4.5m at least - meant that we hoped a fee could be got for him as well. After all another £0.5m to £1m is not a huge extra on the £4.5m, is it?!
I hope we keep Rhys Williams. I also wonder how many games we will see from Thommo this season. Out until October - anyone feel confident enought to bet on it?
Can I suggest that if a valuable asset becomes damaged in the course of work, the employer should do its best to ensure a proper evaluation of the damage, by arranging for expert diagnosis and appropriate treatment?
Thommo may have just been VERY, VERY unlucky. But if you bought a new tractor unit, it broke down soon afterwards and, despite your mechanics' best efforts, it kept on breaking down soon after every repair job, you start asking questions.
Was the damage or its severity correctly identified at the outset? Was the correct treatment identified? Was the plan of treatment properly followed? Was the player put back in the team before being fit - before the original injury had fully healed?
Are people ignoring the medical advice, or should the injury, at the very latest after the first "relapse", have been examined by the top experts in the field? Maybe that would have given rise to a different view of the nature of the injury or a different course of treatment, and the player wouldn't be where he is now (ie injured again)?
If the same thing keeps happening, is the player just REALLY unlucky or has the situation been badly managed/treated and therefore allowed to become much more serious and long lasting?
**AV writes: We could ask the head of the medical science unit. Oh. He's been axed in a restructure. We could ask the PR man then. Oh... ditto.
Forever and AV -
''**AV writes: We could ask the head of the medical science unit. Oh. He's been axed in a restructure. We could ask the PR man then. Oh... ditto.''
They hadnt got the answers the numerous times we had similar problems but of course that is purely anecdotal just as are the appearance figures compared to other clubs. Just because these things are written down and in the public domain doesnt make them useful or of any purpose.
There again if you buy players with injuries or a poor history the rest follows.
I must admit I am still uncertain if Hines ankle operation occurred when they asked what was wrong. They couldnt understand what he was saying and missed the clues such as the handful of teeth ,jaw looking like Beardsley and blood all over the shirt so operated on his ankle.
On to Boyd, he will score goals and we just dont know what would have happened if we had finished rebuilding last summer or if we had enough players fit enough. The problem is that he isnt going to run the channels. Imagine combining Lita's running with Boyds finishing.
I agree with Smog on the points he raised about him, he just wasnt going to fit into Mogga's plans especially with the salary restraints. We just cannot afford the team to get the best out of him.
As the squad was building last summer I expected us to boss the division but injuries robbed us. Flood and Thommo in league games and O'Neill not being fit enough to sell and bring in the final pieces of the jigsaw.
Some very interesting comments here. A few things that don't seem to have been mentioned:
a) wall-to-wall TV coverage has changed football forever, and it is now more of a choice between paying £41 to Sky per month and getting a shed-load of games & other sports as well, or about as much to see one game of what could be rubbish football. With attendant issues e.g. parking, refreshment costs etc, it's a lot of time and money to go and watch football.
b) which is my second point. My first game I ever attended on my own - Boro vs Newc in 1976 - I was encouraged to go by my mam, at 2.00pm in the afternoon, 'cos I was bored at home. Walked to the ground from Linthorpe, paid 40p on the gate at the Boys End, and in I went. Nowadays you have to make a plan equivalent to a small military operation to go to a Premier League/ Championship game, which I'm happy to do once in a while, but certainly not every week.
c) third point - football still seems a long way behind other sports in looking after its customers. What happened to all the half time entertainment - schools having penalty shoot outs etc? The un-necessarily long 15 minute interval has long since been seen for what it is - a cynical marketing ploy to get people to spend more cash on over-priced refreshments and souvenirs.
Loathe him or hate him, Geoff Boycott has made some very good points recently about cricketing authorities putting the needs of spectators before the needs of players, to ensure that in an age where every sport has to compete for followers, cricket is right up there attracting a new breed of supporters. The same is absolutely true for football, no matter which team you are.
Skysports.com understands that Bolton Wanderers are ready to make a move for Middlesbrough's Seb Hines.
I think we need to keep Big Mick for sure. I think Bates (Capt.), Williams and Hines are too similar to each other. So if we need to sell someone it's most probable Hines. The problem here is that his wages are not high nor we won't get a big fee.
We could do with another in the Big Mick mould, though. Or is Ben Gibson the solution here? Definitely we need to keep Rhys and Bates to send the right message to the supporters for next season.
Up the Boro!
Fred Karno said 'Philips is being linked with Blackpool' Outstanding Fred! I watched Jimmy away at Arsenal in the early 90's.He received a bit of verbal off me for ball watching as the Gunnar winger skinned him. Bless he wasn't havin a good day.
If my memory serves me well (it doesn't often) Wilko scored the winner for us. It was at the other end of the pitch so didn't get a decent view, but Ei-iy-oed anyway.
Nice stato read AV but having studied stats on Teesside for 4 years I know as well as anyone that the problem lies in the interpretation of the results and what you put in the bag in the first place - here's a small alternative and highly unquantifyable until it comes to bums on seats.
The great Mo as the American media tends to call it in their oft reported political process. Here you have the expression of the masses emotion. I suggest that people will dig deep when they're on a high. If it makes you feel good you'll pay for it to the detriment of that which doesn't.
Yes indeed there are another set of folk who'll trudge along on the basis of identity and loyalty (I stood in the Holgate when you could swing a cow around you're head and not hit anyone and I was standing almost central- btw the football was appalling).
I recently read in 'The Art of War' by Sun Tzu that a crucial factor in victory is to create 'momentum'. With that the great sage says you can move forward with both the weak and the brave. In effect it's about grabbing hold (metaphorically) of the emotions of the people and using that to get to where you want to be. This I believe is what McClaren never understood with his 'percentage' football strategy. He forgot the folks in the seats and any big Mo he got he lost.
Football like life is multi-factoria l- that's what makes it such fun and why soothsayers can make such a great living trying to establish some sense of certainty. Which is also why it's difficult to put your sticky finger on the key factor. Therefore I think that cost/unemployment et al do have an influence. Yet the big Mo can sweep them all aside.
A small example would be the attendance at Bournemouth AFC in the late eighties. We the Boro fans were locked out much to our disgust due to the fact the ground was full or so they said. This remember was the old third division and we were vying with Bournemouth for promotion. It's quite a ways to Bournemouth but many were happy to make the trip - note I said happy- how many would do it if we were lingering at the bottom of the league with little or no hope.
Takes a good management team to run an effective football club. It takes a great management team to generate the Great Mo and ride the wave of enthusiasm to victory. The Great Mo- puts bums on seats.
**AV writes: Two things. Firstly 'momentum' is almost impossible to quantify so is very hard to express statistically. Secondly, there are times when we appear to have 'momentum' as a club - in the top flight under Big Jack, in the years immediately after the Carling Cup win with two Euro campaigns - when crowds actually go down despite success and a bit of a buzz. How do you explain that? I think it is as you say multi-factoral ... yet the unemployment graph at those points is a compelling argument.
Jarkko
I agree with you that Bates, Rolls Rhys and Seb Hines (and probably Ben Gibson) are similar in style - you'd expect that since they all come from the Academy stable.
The difference is that Rolls Rhys is much the best of them as a centre back (and probably in any other position too).
But you're absolutely right that we need another Big Mick type anyway. If we were able to come out of the re-shaping this summer with that Mogga-alike centre back, a grizzled midfield cynic of the Sean Derry/Michael Brown type and a decent, target man/goalscorer up front to match with the remaining crop of Academy graduates and the rest it won't be too bad.
Jarkko -
I dont know how close Hines is to full fitness plus like many of our academy players he has spent more time injured than fit. That includes when we had a sports science department or not.
If we get a decentish fee it is a good return on our investment in our academy, there needs to be some movement to create space for upcoming graduates.
Maybe AV can shed some light on his place in the pecking order and the type of money we aould be looking for. Is he one of the chosen ones who Mogga will dig his heels in for?
Peasepudin -
Well said there, there are at least a dozen boro supporters in Bahrain ( out of 5,000 Brits) and when I am home I stock up from the shop.
In the old days I used to be able to buy tickets if there was a home game on even if it was a sellout from the Boro management.
Now of course there is no need for any special treatment. I would think there were probably over a thousand Boro boyz in the Gulf.
It says it all about our current financial plight that the best news of the summer is the sale or moving on of a player (ie Boyd) rather than the feverish excitement associated with the purchase of a big name signing. Somehow in these austere times it seems better, almost healthier, like giving up smoking.
I am intrigued as to how Mowbray is going to engage in the transfer market in the next month. The comfort is he has an eye for a good footballer.We shall see.
Chin up AV, character building stuff
Just cos some cockney hack won, doesn't mean you lost.
We love you AV, mr #mogganaut
**AV writes: Ahhhh bless. Group hug?
It was a good night at the Football Supporters Federation gong show in Thatlondon. I was up against some top notch well known writers so it was a feather in the cap even to be there. A lot of supporters of other clubs said some very nice things about the blog. Clearly since the nomination they have had a dip in and they like what they see.
And not just me. They like you lot. They like the interaction and fans getting a platform on a well read blog with a friendly atmosphere and informed audfience. A lot of people wished their club/local paper had something similar.
It's the product on the pitch (IMHO) that is the overriding influence on matchday attendance.
The powers that be at the club itself have stated as much on many an occasion. If we had full employment on Teesside but a zero feelgood factor about the club as was the case for two seasons pre-Mowbray the ability to pay is completely irrelavant if the product on offer is perceived to be worthless.
I don't know what planet some on here inhabited for the first half of last season but the part of Planet Boro I come from saw season ticket holders searching in vain for fans grateful and gracious enough, to accept their philanthropic offer of a "freebie".
This often forlorn hope of getting a bum, any bum would do, on their particular precious piece, of Riverside infrastructure, on the occasion of their own unavailability was all too common in my experience.
In short when things are that bad on the pitch you can't give them away which also makes any attempts at cut price deals and creative ticket pricing policies in general irrelevant; indeed rendered redundant.
This club needs creative ticket pricing schemes when things are going well, not when they are bl**dy awful.
Watched the latter half of the World Cup match and it was depressingly familiar.
As the end of normal time approached you could hear the shouts of the coach telling the players to go over the top, unable to keep possession, two minutes to go and two seemingly pointless substitutions only to concede an equaliser as time ran out, an injury with no subs left, valiant defence with nine and a half out field players only to be beaten on penalties.
Hope Powell has done a good job but it seems the women have the same problems as their male counterparts.
Sorry but I reckon the Boro will be relegated this season. No money, players leaving the club like lemmings, Gibson no money to spend (why the hell is he still at the club) and no excitement. I find it a disgrace that clubs like Blackburn, Bolton, Wolves , Wigan Fulham, Swansea ,QPR, Stoke, West Brom,can survive in the PS and we can't. It just goes to show SG does not have a clue on how to run a football club.
I would suggest anybody about to buy a seasin ticket, put your money on the club being relegated, think you will get a better return. And to those fans who think it will be an exciting season, must be delusional. I also think TM is NOT a good manager, did nothing with WBA and was a joke with Celtic.
I fully expect the Boro to make a full on charge at automatic promotion this season. Although we have no money to spend, we have made some very astute signings in the transfer market with more to come. Small clubs like Blackburn, Bolton, Wolves , Wigan Fulham, Swansea ,QPR, Stoke, West Brom,can survive in the PS and we will too when we get our inevitable promotion back to the big time. Mark my words, SG KNOWS how to run a football club.
Get your season ticket now and look forward to a very successful and entertaining season of Championship football at the Riverside. Tony Mowbray is a great manager as his past record with West Brom and Celtic proves.
Boro getting automatic promotion and some nice greasy fish and chips from the Otterburn Garden chippy = BLISS!
**AV writes: Welcome back Pauls.
Well I'm not sure which Paul Bell sent a post at 12.56pm but can I just raise one query? When he mentions that list of clubs that are able to "survive in the PS" I guess he means the Premier League, since all nine he refers to will be in the Premier League starting this August. But it would be wrong to say, as Paul does, that the nine can survive there "and we can't".
It MIGHT be fair to make that point, and to name those nine if, after this season, Swansea and QPR remain in the PL rather than being relegated. They have GOT there, but have yet to REMAIN there. And there is a very good chance that three of the nine names he has given will be the relegated teams this next time.
Having said that, the fact Stoke stayed up when we went down was a bit of a sickener. But let's not mull over old and painful memories. Let's get behind the team when the new season starts.
...and why did Paul leave Norwich City off his list? With Delia's team, that would be half of the PL!
Hard luck AV. There's always next year eh?
With regards to Seb Hines, I'd rather we kept him. I don't see a big fee being involved and his wages shouldn't be a concern.
Also we've only got Hines, McManus, Bates, Gibson and Williams. Of those five Bates, Williams and Hines have had their fair share of injuries (to say the least) and Williams may have to play in midfield yet anyway.
Should have waited for the "other Paul Bell" at 5.57pm....
Is it Janus? Looking two ways at once?
AV - Sorry about the gong but keep up the good work, getting recognised nationally is a great result in itself. Tried to find a link to a report but couldnt.
Andy R -
One name we seem to have missed is Jon Grounds.
There are others I would rather lose than Seb Hines but we dont know the thinking at the club about the pecking order, as I replied to Jarkko there is always the need to create space to allow new prospects to come through.
Let's say some miracle happens and we manage to get 35 games plus out of McManus and Bates then Hines may not get a chance. OK I stretching credibility but none of us know what will happen.
Interesting insight into Turkish Football and the club where Kris Boyd has gone.
***
KRIS Boyd can pick 'em, can't he? He signs up for the Gordon Strachan era at Middlesbrough and the whole thing collapses around his ears, he decamps to Nottingham Forest where Billy Davies shows him a bit of love - and then Davies gets sacked.
Privately, he sends out the SOS to Rangers but Rangers don't want to know him anymore. As the saying goes, if he didn't have bad luck he'd have no luck at all.
And now he's gone to northwestern Turkey, to a club called Eskisehirspor (nickname: Red Lightnings) in the Super Lig.
On the face of it, it's not a bad move. Plenty of cash for Boyd, a standard of football higher than the SPL, fanatical crowds (these lads show the Old Firm masses how to cause a proper stir), a new stadium in the offing (just as well given that their current ground holds little more than 13,000) and a new culture (sadly, no Monster Munch in Turkey) should the big man decide to embrace it.
Boyd has been a wanted man in Turkey for a few seasons now. Transfixed (or something like that) by the record number of goals he got while at Ibrox, Bursaspor were keen to land him before he eventually opted to join Strachan at Middlesbrough, a move that should have worked, but didn't.
Strachan said that Boyd would eat up the Championship just as soon as he settled down, but he never did. He showed patches of good goalscoring form at Forest but Davies's demise put paid to his chances of a permanent move. Turkey, it would appear, was his only option beyond staying in the reserves at Boro.
The thing about Turkish football, though, is that it's going through what might euphemistically be described as a period of turbulence at present.
Eskisehirspor are in the news, not because of the capture of Boyd and the buckets of goals he may score for them, but on account of their manager, Bulent Uygun, and their athletic director, Umit Karan, being banged up in an Istanbul prison last week pending a trial into a suspected match-fixing scandal in Turkish football.
It's not just the Eskisehirspor guys who are in bother. There are many others in jail at the moment; chairmen and sporting directors and managers and former players and current players. This story is the talk of Turkey. Everybody from the man in the street to the prime minister have been talking about it.
You have to wonder if Boyd noticed the trouble his new club is in for looking at the fat salary they were offering him.
But to summarise: The Turkish Football Federation (TFF) has suspected for years that match-rigging and bribery and fraud and all sorts of other illegal activity was pervasive in the domestic game. Only recently have they gotten serious about dealing with it.
At the beginning of June they banned 11 former players and coaches for life after an investigation into illegal betting between 2008 and 2010.
That was just the beginning, though. Last Sunday, in an operation intended to get to the bottom of suspicious behaviour surrounding 20 matches in the season just gone, the police launched a raid on clubs and the homes of influential football people across 16 provinces in Turkey.
The champions, Fenerbahçe, were at the heart of police scrutiny. In April, Fenerbahçe played Boyd's new club Eskisehirspor and the authorities are exercised about that match more than most others. What they have seen in their investigations so far, they don't like.
Sixty football people were interrogated in Besiktas last week. Thirty-two were then jailed awaiting trial. Some of the charges include "forming, directing and being a member of an armed criminal organisation" said a police spokesman in Istanbul.
In a statement on Wednesday police said they had seized eight unlicensed guns in the raids. It's not known what specific charges are directed at which individuals but prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdog, reacted thus: "Fenerbahçe is not the only club that is being investigated.
"They (prosecutors] are talking about a large (match-fixing] organisation. We all hear there are serious documents (proving the match-fixing allegations]. I hope the investigation will be completed in a fair manner soon."
On Thursday, Eskisehirspor sacked Uygun and Karan. Where, precisely, this leaves Boyd's move to the club is anybody's guess, but there is no doubt that he is about to enter a very strange environment.
What is potentially toxic about his move there is the way the Turkish clubs are funded, or part-funded, by a wonderful deal from the television broadcasters.
Eskisehirspor, and the other clubs implicated in this affair, are hoping that punishment begins and ends with the organisation most in the police spotlight, Fenerbahçe.
But even if it does, there is a financial repercussion that could send a tremor through all of Turkish football. If Fenerbahçe are found guilty they will be stripped of their title from last season and will be relegated.
Given the terms of the broadcast deal - a whopping $321m a year - Fenerbahçe's relegation triggers a renegotiation - and a whole lot less money for the Super Lig clubs that are left behind.
There is a piece of legislation in Turkish law called the Prevention of Violence and Disorder in Sporting Events and there is talk now that if Eskisehirspor are found in contravention of it they, too, will be dumped out of the big league.
Where then for Boydy? Where then for Kenny Miller, too, for that matter? After spending so long in the doldrums in England, Boyd found what he hoped was a new dawn in Turkey. Alas, there's clouds on his horizon again
That Paul Bell eh? Just cant make his mind up...............!
So now Mr. Boyd has kindly moved on, which 'big lad' are we bringing in to lead the line and rough up the Championship defences?
I have to say I'm impressed with the speed that the Boyd and Digard deals appear to have been done. Getting rid of those players early must make Mogga's job of planning who goes and who can come in a little easier. I would also like to think that although we may inevitably loose players who in an ideal world we would like to stay that our hand in the transfer negotiations is strengthend in the knowldege that some considerable pressure has already been lifted off the wage bill.
So it looks like Diagrd is on the way to Nice.
It is a shame it didnt work out so good luck in the future.
AV said: "And not just me. They like you lot. They like the interaction and fans getting a platform on a well read blog with a friendly atmosphere and informed audience. A lot of people wished their club/local paper had something similar".
Are you mental man. We hate each other on this blog. Informed audience - No one has a clue about the Boro. They are all talking .....
Wait a minute, I must be missing the blog more than I thought. I must stop hallucinating.
That better, the shaking has stopped. That was a bad trip. I honestly thought that AV had won that gong and had left us for that London. You did do that didn't ya.
Ah well AV. You are a winner to us. You don't need a gong to prove it. Just read the blog.
We love you AV we do... We love you AV we do.... I think you get the message!
Roll on the season. Unlike that Paul Bell fella, who is obviously STILL hallucinating, I think we are going to have a very exciting season. In Mogga we trust.
RED ARMY.
So Liverpool rumoured to be offering £20m for Downing. Was it poor judgement by the Count in not having a sell on clause - or was it simply force of circumstances at time of sale?
By Tee way AV - re post 12.37 on 7th. "**AV writes: Phillips is about 52".
Whatever age he is - BBC reckons he signed for Blackpool! (Try Kevin not Jimmy)
**AV writes: You can only insert a clause if the buying club will agree and Villa had the upper hand in talks. Boro needed to sell, the player wanted out and he had a bad injury. Boro did well to get £12m in the circumstances.
COTTAGERS CAPTURE SOMOGYI
Fulham have confirmed Hungarian goalkeeper Csaba Somogyi has joined the club on a one-year contract.
I'm surprised he didn't come to us with a name like that!
RED ARMY.
Ian Gill -
Ah yes, Jon Grounds.
Nevertheless, I think we can fairly confidently guess that Seb Hines is fourth in the pecking order behind McManus, Bates & R Williams (in some order or other).
But with Williams possibly to be employed in midfield, and the injury record of Bates, I think it's safe to assume that he'll get some games.
I wouldn't have any great issue with Hines leaving, but if his wages are non-prohibitive, and the fee is low, we may as keep him in my opinion. If Bolton want to offer £2m for him then fine, but I can't see it.
Emnes + Lita = Beattie,C + x, where x equals ?
a) Gary Monk,
b) £50K
c) Leon Britton
d) Geoffrey Howe
**AV writes: There should be more expressing Boro's plight as mathematics. How about Southgate's Theorem: 2 >3 where 2 = (Digard + Emnes) and 3 = (Boeteng + Rochemback + Cattermole)
I wouldn't be too upset about missing out on the award AV, a Boro mate of mine was up for a technical BAFTA. I asked him if he had any chance of winning. "Nah,' he replied, 'the BBC win, they always do.'
Insert your own Scudamore joke here..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14077356
Simon - Is there an association between the name Csaba and Boro? lol!
Pre season has also started on the blog as the 100 approaches, GHW will have been keeping his fitness up over the summer. Dont be surprised if he makes his mark early on.
Sounds like another big earner off the wage bill and again a player that wasnt part of that great run in last season.
Bad luck with gong AV it probably went to somebody from the News of the World.
There was a player with a deal agreed can't remember who he is now but TM said he would take him on as soon as some players moved on. Who was he and do you think there is still an interest.
**AV writes: You mean Anouar Hadouir? He is still in the pending tray.
The gong was won by Side Lowe who does the Spanish/world football stuff for the Guardian/Sports Illustrated. He is a very good writer so no problems with that. Everyone I was up against on the shortlist were quality operators.
SkySports Transfer Centre says 'McCoist in Miller Bid'.
Hopes dashed as realise it is Kenny not Lee!
Just thought I'd drop in for a bit of pre season training. Tough luck on the gong AV, Sid Lowe is very good though.
"Nevertheless, I think we can fairly confidently guess that Seb Hines is fourth in the pecking order behind McManus, Bates & R Williams (in some order or other). "
I think Mogga has pretty much come out and said Williams will be playing centre half and I would happily let McManus and his wage leave if we had Bates, Williams, Hines and Grounds (+ Gibson?) as our centre halfs.
Is it centre halfs or centre halves? Actually, centre backs is easier.
Hello GHW, wish the trains were as reliable as you.
**AV writes: To be honest, I thought he went off half-cock there, very rusty. His timing is all out. Left an open goal for you.
100 not out?
Is Grove Hill Wallah, Kris Boyd in disguise doing a bit of goalpoaching practice that he cannot get with the Boro.
Inter Milan midfielder Wesley Sneijder is poised to seal a £35m switch to Manchester United this week. The Netherlands international's earnings will surpass striker Wayne Rooney's £220,000-a-week wages at Old Trafford.
Sorry we cannot afford them.'Just' £11.5 million per year! Sometimes (read always) I dream the Red Devils to be relegated and wonder they wage bill in the Championship. But of course that won't happen as the rules would be changed to prevent that.
So one player is earning twice the amount all our players are doing together. Crazy me thinks.
Up the Boro!
Honestly thought I'd nailed that one. Devastated.
**AV writes: That's what pre-season is for. Fine-tuning.
Sheepishly runs back to the halfway line, hopes the disputed posts committee doesnt get involved because they show no sympathy to the likes of Tony McMahon and myself.
Selfless toilers with the best interests of the team at heart, I still remember Mc's header against Palace being called an own goal whilst Kinks shot in the same match was heading for the corner flag until it was delflected in being credited to him.
It is only pre season but it is nice to get off the mark but I await Sir Henry's reappearnce with trepidation.
AV, any rumours on any possible transfers in?
What award were you up for? Do you think it will mean more and more non-boro fans will contribute to the board?
**AV writes: Maybe. There were some very articulate fanziney types who said they had been reading the board so lots hope they contribute a different perspective.
I don’t agree with the argument that Boro’s attendances appear solely dependent on the prevailing unemployment rate.
For a start unemployment figures – we all know (depending on your political standpoint) – are manipulated and distorted to a substantial degree by various Government -sponsored work placement schemes YTS, YOP.
I started out in employment on Teesside in the mid-80’s and have remained in full-time employment ever since (save for a self-inflicted period of one month unemployment) during Bryan Robson’s Ayresome Championship Campaign of 1994/95.
All through that time, I have continued to support the team – but have not renewed this season even though my disposable income dictates I could have without hardship.
While clearly Vic has put in some sterling work regarding his statistics, though I would suggest fundamentally, that the purpose of this piece is to LOOK for a corelation rather than accept the reality that that statistics can be manipulated to suit any argument.
For example hypothetically: it’s 37 years since Boro have won at Stamford Bridge. Yet, any Boro fan worth his salt understands that there must be at least a dozen seasons when that fixture couldn’t have taken place due to each clubs’ league status at that time.
It’s all relative and the demises in attendances at Boro games can equally with as much credibility be attributed to largely periods in decline in the clubs fortunes – or otherwise in an upward spiral – ON the pitch.
The exception appearing to be the Steve McClaren reign around 2004-2006. Boro’s own golden generation.
Even so, the games immediately after the club’s League Cup success saw an instant and sizeable increase in home attendances. Southampton and Birmingham City both drawing crowds of over 31,000 for largely run-of-the-mill league fixtures. Though the average for that season clearly tells a different story if you believe figures alone.
Also, it’s worth considering that other provincial areas similar to Teesside have also suffered economically over the same period of time yet other clubs attendances have held up in recession.
Our support is and always as been at best respectable. At worst embarrassing.
The club hold all the cards: Approx. £70 million has come into the club in transfer fees and parachute payments since relegation in 2009 (if we are to believe the figures published) with less than a tenth of that spent (also in transfer fees) and a half-hearted attempt to restore confidence and belief back into the Teesside people and its economy through promotion.
That probably gives knowlegable fans the real inside track of just why Boro’s gates are as poor as they are for a club who five years ago contested the second-biggest club game in world football.
**AV writes: I didn't set out to LOOK for anything. The causal link between gates and unemployment is always mooted every times the subject is discussed but it has always been based on anecdotal evidence so one rainy afternoon I set about actually finding the figures.
Plotting them against each other threw up an interesting and obvious visual corelation. I think there is a compelling argument that they are directly linked.
Naturally there are other factors which will have an influence: the change in the demographics to a family audience for instance hasn't been mentioned, nor has the rise in TV games or measuring local wealth by relative disposable income rather than employment, all which would be very hard to quantify, especially by a layman like me.
How - or if - some of the other variables can be measured has been mentioned in the ensuing debate which I think has been very interesting and a useful exercise.
The graph is not definitive or pre-determined. It is just the starting point for a discussion that hopefully will give us a firmer grip on a very complex subject.
Good shot Ian!
"Approx. £70 million has come into the club in transfer fees and parachute payments since relegation in 2009 (if we are to believe the figures published) with less than a tenth of that spent (also in transfer fees) and a half-hearted attempt to restore confidence and belief back into the Teesside people and its economy through promotion."
And how much spent in wages?
No Emnes or Hines in Squad? No wonder we have no money, paying out too much sick pay for all these injured players
Take the avearage hourly wage of a welder, the price of a pint and the price of the cheapest ticket for the match in relation to each other and plot them on a graph with the average attendance.
**AV writes: I've done the beer curve before and it has roughly increased from two pints per match ticket in the early seventies to ten pints now (in non-trendy pubs). I'll have a look at working the average wage in. We'll end up with a very busy graph.
Gt -
And Halliday, and Steele, and Thommo. Not all the club's fault but I wouldnt take a tour around Rockcliffe, someone did a good piece some time ago about the Spirit of Rockcliffe (was it Richard?)
It's official:
Didier Digard: "Being part of the project" 7.12
Officially presented to the press today, Didier Digard is committed for three years with OGC Nice. "Content" of his final arrival at the club, the No. 6 Nice will be sustainable.
Above from http://www.ogcnice.com/ their official site. (translation)
Money must be burning a hole in Moggas pocket now.
Any ideas if or who we are going to sign? Certainly need a goalkeeper now.
RED ARMY
AV, do you think MacMoses will lend us Paul Smith as we need him with Steele out injured for three months? This would be quite logical me thinks but don't know what the Smog's unfavourite team thinks.
Up the Boro!
Borophil -
I think we will need a grizzled McManus type centreback in this division to play alongside the more cultured players.
It works in the top flight with the likes of Vidic and Ferdinand, the best partnership Chelsea had was Terry and Carvalho. The footballers were not afraid to put there foot in and the hard men could play a bit.
Arsenal struggle because they dont have a hardman at the back (or a good goalie or a hardman in midfield).
I suspect with the fee and salary for a McManus replacement you may as well stcik with the one we have if he is fit.
Simon in the USA -
I suspect we do not have much wriggle room yet on the wage bill.
We do not know the full details though Vic's comments indicate we needed to get £10m off the wage bill. Whether that included Wheater and O'Neill or not I dont know.
I guess Digard, Boyd, Taylor, Arca and Flood amount to about £6m in wages and no transfer fees in the cases of Boyd and Digard.
Even if Wheater and O'Neil are included I guess that takes us towards the £10m mark and fees will have gone to reduce the debt.
At best we have probably reached the one in one out situation.
It may be that the wage bill still needs to be trimmed and by comments on here we guess that the likely targets are Hoyte, Lita and some of Strachans buys but I guess any outs would seriously weaken the squad if no rplacements are brought in. We are already seeing a few long term injuries and only a week into pre season.
**AV writes: I did my column on it yesterday. I included Wheater and O'Neil in the equation and roughly made it just over £8m saved since January.
We believe Boro need to get down to the Championship average wage bill of around £10m and think there may be another £2m to go. That means two more of those players who are earning in the area of £20k out before Mogga has any real leeway.
Maybe Ian, but I'd like to see Bates and Williams as our centreback pairing at the start of the season. They are possibly too similar as they both like to play the ball out but there is no reason that can't work particularly if they have Nicky Bailey enforcing in front of them, who can slot in when one of them goes forward.
Then if we did sell McManus I'd see no reason to replace him and use the cash elsewhere or put it towards savings.
I see McClaren has been linked with Greening, Boateng and Zenden. Maccarone next.
How much saved in wages BoroPhil?
I don't know about Southgate's Theorum, but Moggamatics is delightfully simple:
Sum > Parts
What he's managed to achieve with our rabble since he arrived is nothing short of a mathematical miracle. Akin to "discovering" the number 0, or the diameter of the earth.
If only Gibbo could discover a few extra zero's on the end of his bank balance!
"Geoff said:
How much saved in wages BoroPhil?"
Irrelevant, the point is you said we had received £70m and half-heartedly spent £7m, ignoring the fact we will have paid out at least £40-50m in wages since then.
French trialist midfielder Malaury Martin is close to signing a one-year deal according to MFC.
He is a central midfielder as was Digard who has signed for Nice according to the French club. I suppose Martin is seen as helping Thompson to recover as we have plenty of central midfielders.
So we seem to have some space for in-coming players now after Boydy has gone as well.
I think we need a big centre forward (and sell Miller, too) and a right winger. When was last time we have had a natural right winger? Morrison perhaps but he has played more in centre since his days at Riverside, too.
But glad we have moved the two most-difficult-to-sell players off our books. Now it's time for some in-comings and later perhaps Hoyte, Lita, Grounds or Hines moving on.
Life looks good - just cannot wait for some players coming in.
#mogganaut and up the Boro!
Borophil said: "...I'd like to see Bates and Williams as our centreback pairing at the start of the season. They are possibly too similar as they both like to play the ball out but there is no reason that can't work particularly if they have Nicky Bailey enforcing in front of them, who can slot in when one of them goes forward."
I agree with that. I appreciate that neither Bates nor Williams are as robust as McManus, and that many notable partnerships at the back have included one ball-winner and one ball-player, but I think that reading the game and interceptions are as important as ball winning.
Bates and Williams are not shy, and both read the game better than McManus in my opinion. That will make up for much of the loss of McManus' more physical attributes, with the significant added bonus that both can set up attacks from the back and help the team keep possession (taking further pressure off the defence). Above all else, I just think that Bates and Williams are our two best centre-backs.
There will, however, be occasions when we come up against a very physical front line, and McManus will be better suited to dealing with that.
In the end I suspect that fitness will often be the deciding factor, but given the choice it would be Bates and Williams for me.
Welcome back Brad Jones on loan,
AV - Bother, I missed the article, was it on the website or in the paper?
One way and I hang my head in shame, the other I invoke the 5 mile rule.
Moving on, the lead sentance on the thread by AV read 'A PICTURE paints a thousand words'
If you go back to the Boro Gazette homepage a series of main articles scroll over with pictures. One of them shows Steele trying to have a drink and pouring it into his eye. Two possibilities: We either need a new goalkeeping coach or that is the treatment prescribed by the Rockcliffe witchdoctors for his broken wrist.
Result stands
Is it just me, or does anyone else feel a sense of pride that Stewart Downing has gone to Liverpool for 20 million quid?
I see that Hartlepool have sold 4000 season tickets; well done.
Can MFC learn something from this?
Hartlepool selling season tickets at £100 each, if I lived closer I'd have bought one myself and I'm a Boro fan.
I think its Wigan and Blackburn who are selling season tickets for £250. If Boro charged this then I'd probably get one, if Premier League clubs can charge that then why cant we?
If we sold season tickets at £250, I think we would see a massive upturn in sales, just over £10 a game is a good deal and brings fans back.
Something has to be done to bring the fans back, we always say it but nothing ever happens.